1 settled, 1 open, 0 scored for CLV. A CLV rate means little under about a hundred settled bets; the denominator is printed everywhere on this page so it can be judged rather than taken.
Excluded from CLV1 settled position carries no recorded closing number, so it is counted in the record but not in any CLV figure: Under 51.5. Rule five of the spec is that a missing close is flagged rather than silently dropped.
OpenAug 21, 2026NCAAF
BYU to win the national championship +9900
1 u at Kalshi
Bought at the 1-cent ask on KXNCAAF-27-BYU, which is +9900. All-in 1.0693 cents after Kalshi's published taker fee. Against BYU's 25-cent playoff BID on the same exchange, break-even needs BYU to win 4.28 percent of the playoffs it reaches, against a field average of 8.33 by arithmetic. No position at 2 cents, where the same test needs 8.55 and the edge is gone. The close comes from the same book, KXNCAAF-27-BYU, per rule 5; event_start is the first FBS game of the 2026 season rather than BYU's own opener, which is the conservative reading.
The piece that made itA Penny Is The Smallest Opinion This Market Can HaveLostNov 6, 2026NFL
Under 51.5 +100
-0.5 u0.5 u at DraftKings
DraftKings NJ and NY both u51.5 +100 / o51.5 -120 at 19:16Z, 99% handle and 80% tickets on the over. Kalshi KXNFLTOTAL-26NOV08LVSF-52 49 bid, 50 ask, so the under gains $1.00 per $100 at the midpoint and the over gives up $9.25. Half a unit because the edge is thin and rests on one burst of trading on Nov. 5. The close comes from DraftKings (Action Network book 68) per rule 5. SETTLED 2026-11-09 by CP: loss. Final 38-17, 55 points, over 51.5 (ESPN scoreboard, event 401873047). close_number and close_price left null: the DraftKings close was not captured before kickoff and the desk does not reconstruct it from another book (rule 5), so this row is excluded from CLV and flagged on the page.
The piece that made itBook money is on the over in the 49ers game. Exchange money went the other wayHow this is scoredClosing line value is the headline. A bet taken at +3 that closes at +2 beat the market by a point and was a good bet whether or not it cashed. One taken at +3 that closes at +4 was a bad bet even if it won. Over any honest sample CLV predicts future profit and past profit does not, which is why it leads and the money follows.
Spreads and totals are scored in points, moneylines in implied-probability points rather than cents, because American odds jump discontinuously across zero and +100 against a close of -100 is the same price, not two hundred cents of movement. Points and probability points are never averaged together.
Units are net at the price actually taken, so a winning bet at -110 returns 0.91 units rather than 1. ROI is net units over units risked, not over a bankroll. The closing number always comes from the same book the bet was logged at, named in every row.
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