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September 22, 2026
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Called Shots

Every falsifiable call made on this site, dated the day it was made and graded when reality settles it. The argument behind each one sits on its section's own ledger, one click away. Nothing here gets quietly deleted. A call that missed stays up, marked missed, next to the ones that landed.

The next call resolves within a day

  • overdueThe NCAA's reply in support of its motion for a stay pending appeal in Wisne v. NCAA, No. 26-1309 (10th Cir.), w...NCAA Hoops
  • overdueOn 2026-09-10, DraftKings' average overround across the eight NFL division-winner books still exceeds Kalshi's a...49ers
  • Sep 26, 2026At least one San Jose player who has never appeared in an NHL regular-season game dresses for all four of the Sh...Sharks
  • Sep 27, 2026The San Francisco 49ers do NOT add a wide receiver from outside the organisation to either their active roster o...49ers
  • Sep 27, 2026Arizona scores no more than one touchdown against San Francisco at Levi's Stadium on Sunday, September 27, 2026,...49ers
  • Sep 27, 2026Robbie Ray finishes the 2026 season with an ERA above 4.00.Giants
61%Hit rate
+3.31Net units
5 of 17Beat the house line

133 of these 345 calls carry a price, set by the writer on the day the call was made and shown on the card. 32 have graded, for a net of +3.31 units. Every call risks one unit: a hit pays by its own odds, a miss costs the unit whatever the price was. The 212 calls made before September 2, 2026 predate the price and are graded held up or missed only.

17 of the priced calls also carry a house line, set by a handicapper who never sees the writer's price. A writer whose price is longer than the house line beat the line: 5 of 17 have. Once ten carry one the count joins the scoreboard, and 2 graded at the house line net -0.23 units.

OpenAug 7, 202649ers

On 2026-09-10, DraftKings' average overround across the eight NFL division-winner books still exceeds Kalshi's average overround across the same eight books by at least 5.0 percentage points. Method, fixed in advance: for each division, convert every team's price to an implied probability, sum the four, subtract 100; average those eight figures per venue; take DraftKings minus Kalshi. Kalshi prices are bid/ask midpoints on series KXNFL* pulled the same day.

Casey Montgomery

Was due Sep 10, 2026. Still ungraded: the desk has not been able to get An archived capture of DraftKings' NFL division-winner board as it stood on 2026-09-10, for all eight divisions, from a web archive or a screenshot taken that day. If none exists by the 2026-10-06 review, this row should be VOIDED rather than graded, because its own method can no longer be executed. CHECKED AND STILL UNMET, 2026-09-12. The Wayback Machine DOES hold captures of the correct page on the correct Pacific day: sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/football/nfl?category=futures at 20260910211427 UTC (14:14 PT on 2026-09-10) and at 20260911020259 UTC (19:02 PT on 2026-09-10), both HTTP 200. BOTH WERE FETCHED AND BOTH ARE PRICELESS IN THE LITERAL SENSE. Each returns the page shell, the futures navigation and the subcategory ids for all eight divisions, and each carries "selections":[], "outcomes":[] and "offers":{} in its embedded state, because DraftKings hydrates the board from an API call the crawler never made. The instrument was proved on both files: 756 and 757 occurrences of 'draftkings' against zero for a known-negative control string, and the title reads 'NFL Betting Odds & Lines: Futures | DraftKings Sportsbook'. So the missing half is the odds API response, not the page. A CDX search for archived DraftKings odds-API hosts was ATTEMPTED AND IS INCONCLUSIVE RATHER THAN NEGATIVE: the Internet Archive returned its 'Temporarily Offline' page on two of the three host queries, and the one query that completed (sportsbook.draftkings.com/sites*) returned an empty result set. That single empty result is the only real negative and it does not cover the odds hosts. RECOMMENDATION UNCHANGED: VOID at the 2026-10-06 review unless someone finds an archived odds-API capture. The page-level route is now closed with evidence rather than assumed closed. RE-CHECKED 2026-09-13 AND THE ODDS-API ROUTE IS NOW A PROVED NEGATIVE RATHER THAN INCONCLUSIVE. The Internet Archive was fully available this morning and all eight DraftKings host queries completed, where on 2026-09-12 two of three returned its 'Temporarily Offline' page. The instrument was proved on a known positive first: a CDX query for sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/football/nfl* over 09/10 to 09/11 returned the two captures already held (20260910211427 and 20260911020259), with no offline marker on any query. The odds host sportsbook-nash.draftkings.com IS archived in the window, so its coverage is real rather than absent, and across 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-11 it carries EXACTLY TWO status-200 captures. One is api/sportscontent/moonshot/v1/multipliers at 1,051 bytes, which carries no book. The other was OPENED rather than inferred from its address: a controldata/league/primaryMarkets/v1/markets query, fetched raw with --compressed at 88,953 bytes of valid JSON, leagues array NFL id 88808, events array individual Week 1 games beginning 'NE Patriots @ SEA Seahawks', containing ZERO occurrences of 'Division', 'Winner' or 'To Win'. It is a game-lines payload and holds no division-winner market. Queries for every leagues, eventgroups, futures and 88808-futures pattern returned nothing, against a known-positive control that matched and a known-negative control that returned zero. ALL THREE ROUTES ARE NOW CLOSED WITH EVIDENCE: the live board reprices daily and measures a different day, the two archived page captures hydrate empty, and the odds API has no archived division-winner response. RECOMMENDATION UNCHANGED AND NOW CARRIED ON A COMPLETED SEARCH: VOID at the 2026-10-06 review. THE ONLY ARTIFACT THAT WOULD SETTLE IT is a capture of DraftKings' eight NFL division-winner books as they stood on 2026-09-10, from any source, including a screenshot taken that day by a person. RE-CHECKED 2026-09-22 BY THE 49ERS DAILY SWEEP, AND IT CONFIRMS THE 2026-09-12 FINDING BY AN INDEPENDENT ROUTE RATHER THAN ADDING ONE. No CDX search was re-run; the two capture timestamps were taken from this field's own text. Both were opened in a browser rather than fetched raw, which is a different instrument from the 2026-09-12 fetch, and both reached the same answer: the page renders DraftKings' full navigation and displays the site's own words 'No Available Bets - There are no available bets at the moment.' The 21:14 UTC capture's embedded navigation JSON carries the division-winner menu entries, including 'seoId':'nfc-west','title':'NFC West', and every one of them has 'children':[]. The 02:02 UTC capture contains the string 'NFC West' zero times anywhere in its HTML. THIS ADDS NO NEW ROUTE AND CHANGES NO RECOMMENDATION. It is recorded because last_checked stood at 2026-09-13 and the row is twelve days overdue, so a fresh reading with a date on it is worth more than a stale one. VOID at the 2026-10-06 review, unchanged

OpenSep 16, 202649ers

The San Francisco 49ers do NOT add a wide receiver from outside the organisation to either their active roster or their practice squad between 2:49 p.m. Pacific on September 16, 2026 and kickoff of their Week 3 game, 1:05 p.m. Pacific on Sunday, September 27, 2026. Any outside route scores the take WRONG: a free-agent signing, a waiver claim or a trade. Movement among men already under contract to San Francisco does not count, so promoting Wesley Grimes or Will Pauling from the practice squad, activating Christian Kirk from Reserve/Injured, or a standard game-day elevation all leave the take CORRECT. Position is taken from the club's own roster page: a man the club lists at WR is a receiver and a man it lists anywhere else is not.

Sam Kezar

-160a hit pays 0.62 units, a miss costs 1.00

Resolves in 4 days, Sep 27, 2026

OpenSep 21, 2026Michigan FB

Iowa's average distance to go on third down in its September 26, 2026 game at Michigan Stadium is BELOW 8.0 yards. Method fixed in advance: CollegeFootballData's play file for the 2026 regular season, week 4, filtered to plays where Iowa is the offense and down is 3, excluding kickoff, punt, timeout, no-play penalty, field goal and period-end rows; the mean of the distance field, rounded to two decimals. A result of exactly 8.00 loses.

Wes Ferry

-130a hit pays 0.77 units, a miss costs 1.00house line -120

Resolves in 4 days, Sep 27, 2026

OpenSep 22, 2026Michigan FB

Andrew Sprague's Game Day Status on the Big Ten availability report published for Michigan's September 26, 2026 game against Iowa is Out or Out (1st Half). Scored off the game-day column of that published report at bigten.org. It resolves yes only on those two designations; Game Time Decision resolves no, and Sprague not appearing on the report at all resolves no, because a player not listed is Available under the rule.

Grant Lombard

-175a hit pays 0.57 units, a miss costs 1.00

Resolves in 4 days, Sep 27, 2026

OpenSep 22, 2026Michigan FB

At least one Michigan player OTHER THAN Andrew Sprague appears on the Big Ten availability report for the September 26, 2026 Iowa game with a Game Day Status of Out or Out (1st Half) and an Initial Status that is neither of those two designations. Scored by comparing the Initial Status and Game Day Status columns of Michigan's rows in that published report. If the Big Ten does not publish Michigan's report with both an Initial Status column and a Game Day Status column, this resolves no.

Grant Lombard

+120a hit pays 1.20 units, a miss costs 1.00

Resolves in 4 days, Sep 27, 2026

OpenSep 19, 2026USMNT

At least five of the eleven players who start for the United States against Peru on 2026-09-26 are drawn from the thirteen uncapped players named in the federation's 2026-09-17 roster notes (Mathis Albert, Cole Campbell, Justin Ellis, Zavier Gozo, Julian Hall, Diego Kochen, Adri Mehmeti, Peyton Miller, Neil Pierre, Brooklyn Raines, Brian Schwake, Cavan Sullivan, Frankie Westfield). Scored off the published starting eleven for that match. Resolves yes at five or more of those thirteen in the eleven; resolves no at four or fewer.

Eli Guerrero

+150a hit pays 1.50 units, a miss costs 1.00house line +230

Resolves in 4 days, Sep 27, 2026

OpenSep 17, 2026Giants

San Francisco finishes the 2026 regular season with fewer bases on balls than any other club in Major League Baseball. Scored off the league's official 2026 regular-season team batting record for bases on balls (the season team hitting totals published by Major League Baseball), read the morning after the final day of the regular season. RIGHT if San Francisco's final walk total is strictly lower than every other club's. WRONG if any club finishes with fewer, and WRONG if any club ties San Francisco's total. Intentional walks count, exactly as they do in the official team total. Hit by pitch does not count. If the regular season is shortened and San Francisco plays fewer than 158 games, score it off the games actually played and say so.

Jamie Silva

-150a hit pays 0.67 units, a miss costs 1.00

Resolves in 5 days, Sep 28, 2026

OpenSep 4, 2026Giants

The Texas Rangers are one of the twelve clubs in the 2026 Major League Baseball postseason field, by winning the American League West or by taking any of the three American League wild cards. RIGHT if Texas is in the twelve-team field that begins postseason play after the regular season ends 2026-09-27. WRONG if Texas is not. Resolves off ONE permanent public document, MLB's final 2026 regular-season standings and the postseason field they determine, and needs no snapshot taken in advance. Priced by me at +180, which implies 35.7 percent.

Casey Montgomery

+180a hit pays 1.80 units, a miss costs 1.00

Resolves in 7 days, Sep 30, 2026

OpenSep 19, 2026USWNT

Naomi Girma is on the field for at least one minute of a competitive Chelsea first-team match played on or before October 4, 2026. Competitive means a Women's Super League, FA Cup, League Cup or UEFA Women's Champions League fixture. Any appearance, as a starter or a substitute, for any length of time, resolves this in my favour. Being named in a squad and not used does not.

Maya Arguello

-190a hit pays 0.53 units, a miss costs 1.00house line -200

Resolves in 11 days, Oct 4, 2026

OpenJul 31, 2026Giants

Across the eight Friday MLB cards from 2026-08-07 through 2026-09-25, in games where DraftKings' published splits show one moneyline side holding a handle percentage at least 25 points above its own ticket percentage, the consensus closing moneyline on that side finishes SHORTER than the price printed beside that split in at least 60 percent of cases. Method, fixed in advance: the split and the paired price both come from DraftKings Network's dated game-splits post for that Friday, read the same morning; the close is VegasInsider's consensus moneyline for that game; a price that finishes identical counts as FALSE; every qualifying game on those eight cards is in the sample and the count is printed when this scores. Fewer than 25 qualifying games and the call is VOID rather than graded.

Casey Montgomery

Resolves in 12 days, Oct 5, 2026

OpenAug 14, 2026Giants

Across the six Friday MLB cards from 2026-08-21 through 2026-09-25, in games where DraftKings' published splits at the morning read show one moneyline side holding a handle percentage at least 25 points above its own ticket percentage, TWO tests are scored on that same side and they disagree. Test A, the de-vigged test: the side's implied win probability at the consensus close, after removing the margin proportionally from both sides of the pair, is HIGHER than its de-vigged probability at the morning read. Test B, the posted-price test: the side's consensus closing American price is SHORTER than the price printed beside its split at the morning read. The claim is that Test A scores at least 60 percent while Test B scores under 50 percent. Method fixed in advance: the split, its paired price and the game count come from DraftKings' splits page read the same morning and captured to file, both sides of each pair recorded so the margin can be removed; the close is VegasInsider's consensus moneyline for that game; an exactly equal price or probability counts as FALSE on its own test; every qualifying game on the six cards is in the sample and the count is printed when this scores. Fewer than 20 qualifying games and the call is VOID rather than graded.

Casey Montgomery

Resolves in 12 days, Oct 5, 2026

OpenSep 19, 2026USMNT

A center back other than Chris Richards, Miles Robinson and Auston Trusty starts at center back for the United States in at least one of the four fall friendlies (Peru 09-26, Chile 09-29, Mexico 10-03, Canada 10-06). Scored off the published starting elevens. Resolves yes if any other player is one of the starting central defenders in any of the four; resolves no if every central-defensive start across all four goes to those three.

Eli Guerrero

-150a hit pays 0.67 units, a miss costs 1.00house line -200

Resolves in 14 days, Oct 7, 2026

OpenAug 12, 2026Sharks

Neither Filip Bystedt nor Quentin Musty is on San Jose's active roster for the Sharks' 2026-27 regular-season opener against Florida on October 1, 2026. Scored off the roster San Jose dresses and reports for that game: if either man appears in the box score, or is listed on the club's active roster rather than as a healthy scratch sent to the AHL, the call is a miss. Both absent is a hit. If the opener is postponed or the season does not begin on schedule, the row resolves against San Jose's first regular-season game actually played.

Dom Cahill

Resolves in 15 days, Oct 8, 2026

OpenSep 16, 2026Sharks

San Jose allows 29.0 or more shots on goal per game across its 15 regular-season games played in October 2026, October 1 through October 31 inclusive. Scored from the NHL's own game box scores for those 15 games: total shots on goal recorded against San Jose, divided by 15. RIGHT if the figure is 29.0 or higher. WRONG if it is 28.9 or lower. Shots on goal only, as the box score records them, so blocked shots and missed shots do not count. If any of the 15 games is postponed out of October, score the games actually played in the month and divide by that number, and say so.

Dom Cahill

-140a hit pays 0.71 units, a miss costs 1.00

Resolves by Nov 1, 2026

OpenAug 21, 2026Michigan FB

At least TWO of these eight teams are among the twelve selected for the College Football Playoff field announced Sunday, December 6, 2026: BYU, Washington, SMU, Utah, Iowa, Houston, Louisville, Missouri. Those eight are exactly the teams that were BOTH in the AP preseason top 25 released 2026-08-17 AND quoted at 0 bid, 1 cent ask in Kalshi's KXNCAAF national title book when it was read on 2026-08-21 at 10:36 a.m. Pacific. The list is fixed here and does not change. Method: the CFP's own announced field.

Casey Montgomery

Resolves by Dec 8, 2026

OpenSep 14, 2026Sharks

Michael Misa averages at least 1:00 of shorthanded ice time per game across San Jose's first 20 regular-season games of 2026-27. Scored from Hockey Reference's 2026-27 San Jose time-on-ice table, the shorthanded TOI column, restricted to the club's first 20 games; games Misa does not dress do not count toward the average, and if he dresses for fewer than 10 of the 20 the row is void. His 2025-26 figure across 45 games was 0:00.

Dom Cahill

+210a hit pays 2.10 units, a miss costs 1.00

Resolves by Dec 15, 2026

OpenAug 8, 2026Sharks

Sam Dickinson finishes the 2026-27 NHL regular season with a LOWER even-strength offensive zone start percentage (oZS%) than Darnell Nurse. Scored off Hockey Reference's 2026-27 San Jose Sharks team page, Advanced Stats table, oZS% column, both men read from the same table on the same day. Dickinson strictly lower is a hit; equal or higher is a miss. If either man plays fewer than 20 regular-season games for San Jose, the row is unresolvable rather than a miss.

Dom Cahill

Resolves by Apr 30, 2027

OpenAug 14, 2026Sharks

San Jose scores fewer than 276 goals in the 2026-27 regular season. Scored off the Sharks' official regular-season goals-for total, from any single source that carries it: 275 or fewer is a hit, 276 or more is a miss. Shootout-winner goals count or do not count as that source counts them, and empty-net goals count. 276 is the top of the availability-adjusted band this piece argues for, so the row tests the ceiling of my own reading rather than the projection I am arguing against.

Grant Lombard

Resolves by Apr 30, 2027

OpenAug 14, 2026Sharks

Michael Misa finishes the 2026-27 regular season with fewer than 60 points. Scored off his official NHL regular-season point total for the season, from any single source that carries it: 59 or fewer is a hit, 60 or more is a miss. Points for any club count, not only San Jose, so a trade does not make the row unresolvable. Misa is the single largest rate increase asked of any returning player on the board this piece examines, from 0.47 points per game as a rookie to 0.71.

Grant Lombard

Resolves by Apr 30, 2027

OpenSep 9, 2026Sharks

Alex Barre-Boulet finishes the 2026-27 AHL regular season with more regular-season points than any other San Jose Barracuda skater. METHOD FIXED IN ADVANCE: read the Barracuda's final regular-season team scoring list at sjbarracuda.com/stats, or the club's team page at theahl.com, after the last regular-season game. Regular season only, so Calder Cup playoff points do not count. Points he scores in the NHL do not count. A tie at the top scores this WRONG.

Posey Thompson

-135a hit pays 0.74 units, a miss costs 1.00

Resolves by Apr 30, 2027

OpenSep 18, 2026Giants

Jackson Flora's FIRST regular-season appearance of the 2027 minor league season comes at Double-A or higher. RIGHT if the first game in his 2027 minor league regular-season pitching log (gameType R) is at Double-A, Triple-A or, if he skips the minors entirely, the major leagues. WRONG if that first appearance is at High-A, Single-A, a complex league or anywhere below Double-A. Postseason and spring games do not count. Resolves off his official 2027 game log at the league's own feed. If he does not appear in a regular-season minor league game in 2027 at all, score it WRONG.

Andie Townsend

+125a hit pays 1.25 units, a miss costs 1.00

Resolves by May 15, 2027

OpenSep 5, 2026Giants

Jackson Flora is credited with fewer than 100.0 innings pitched in the 2027 minor league REGULAR season, counting every affiliated level combined and excluding postseason innings and any major league innings. RIGHT if his 2027 minor league regular-season total is 99.2 innings or fewer in baseball's notation. WRONG if it is 100.0 or more. Resolves off his official season totals at the league's own feed.

Grant Lombard

-120a hit pays 0.83 units, a miss costs 1.00

Resolves by Oct 8, 2027

OpenSep 16, 2026Giants

Rafael Devers starts more games at first base than as designated hitter for the San Francisco Giants in the 2027 regular season. Scored off the league's own fielding game log for personId 646240, 2027 regular season games only: games STARTED at first base against games STARTED as designated hitter. RIGHT if first-base starts are strictly greater. WRONG if they are equal or fewer. Games he does not appear in do not count on either side. If San Francisco plays fewer than 40 regular-season games in 2027, score it off the games actually played and say so.

Posey Thompson

-150a hit pays 0.67 units, a miss costs 1.00

Resolves by Nov 1, 2027

MissedSep 19, 202649ers

Ogbo Okoronkwo plays MORE than 18 defensive snaps for the San Francisco 49ers in their Week 2 game against the Miami Dolphins on September 20, 2026, measured on the defensive column of that game's official NFL game book Playtime Percentage pages. Eighteen played in Week 1 is the bar and it is the number the book prints for him in that game. Exactly 18 grades this WRONG. Not appearing on the page grades this WRONG, because absent means zero.

Sam Kezar

-130-1.00 unitshouse line -120

Held upSep 10, 202649ers

The San Francisco 49ers add at least one defensive lineman to their 53-man active roster between September 10 and September 19, 2026 inclusive, Pacific time. Any route counts: a free-agent signing, a promotion from the practice squad, a waiver claim, a trade, or an activation from a reserve list. A STANDARD PRACTICE-SQUAD ELEVATION DOES NOT COUNT, because an elevated player is not signed to the active roster and reverts after the game. The take is WRONG if no defensive lineman is added to the active roster in that window.

Sam Kezar

-120+0.83 units

MissedAug 28, 202649ers

Kalshi's daily closing quote on the San Francisco Super Bowl contract KXSB-27-SF will read 4 cents bid and 5 cents ask on EVERY one of the 19 daily closes from 2026-08-28 through 2026-09-15 inclusive. That window contains the NFL cut from 90 players to 53 at 6 p.m. Eastern on August 30, waiver settlement on August 31, and San Francisco's Week 1 game against the Los Angeles Rams at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on September 10. Method fixed in advance: ONE pull of Kalshi's public candlestick record for KXSB-27-SF at period_interval=1440, reading the closing bid and the closing ask of each daily candle in the window. If any daily close in the window prints a bid other than 4 or an ask other than 5, the call is WRONG. If all 19 print 4 bid and 5 ask, the call is RIGHT. If Kalshi's candlestick record does not return the full window when pulled, the call is VOID.

Casey Montgomery

Held upAug 21, 202649ers

In San Francisco's Week 1 game against the Rams on September 10, 2026, Jack Jones plays MORE defensive snaps than Nate Hobbs. A player absent from the game book's Playtime Percentage page counts as zero, whether he is inactive, on injured reserve, or no longer on the roster. The take is CORRECT only if Jones's defensive snap count is strictly greater than Hobbs's. It is WRONG if Hobbs's is equal to or greater than Jones's, and that includes the case where both are zero.

Sam Kezar

Held upAug 31, 202649ers

Jon Weeks is on the San Francisco 49ers' ACTIVE roster, not its practice squad, for the Week 1 game against the Los Angeles Rams on September 10, 2026. The take is WRONG if he appears in that game as a standard practice-squad elevation rather than as an active-roster player, WRONG if a different long snapper is on the active roster in his place, and WRONG if he is not with the organisation at all. This is a claim about which list he is on, not about whether he plays.

Sam Kezar

MissedSep 4, 202649ers

On 2026-09-10, the depth chart published at 49ers.com/team/depth-chart still carries a "Last Updated" stamp dated EARLIER than 09/02/26. Method, fixed in advance: open that page on 2026-09-10 Pacific time and read the date printed in the line beneath the chart ("The San Francisco 49ers Unofficial Depth Chart was Last Updated on MM/DD/YY"). A stamp of 09/02/26 or later grades this WRONG. A page that does not load or prints no stamp grades this WRONG.

Grant Lombard

-130-1.00 units

Held upAug 30, 202649ers

Jalen Stroman is on the San Francisco 49ers' practice squad as the club first publishes it after the August 30, 2026 cutdown. The take is WRONG if another club claims him on waivers, if he signs elsewhere, or if his name is absent from San Francisco's first published practice squad for any other reason. Being on the initial 53 instead would also grade this WRONG. This is a claim about the practice squad and not about the 53; the separate August 29 call about the initial 53-man roster is a different row and this does not restate it.

Sam Kezar

MissedAug 29, 202649ers

Jordan Watkins is NOT on the San Francisco 49ers' initial 53-man roster as announced at the August 30, 2026 cutdown. If his name is on that roster, this is WRONG. Scored off the club's announced initial 53-man roster and nothing else. The practice squad is not the 53, and a signing, claim or elevation after the initial roster is announced is not the 53. A player placed on injured reserve FROM the initial 53 counts as having made it, per the Kaelon Black precedent of 2026-07-29.

Sam Kezar

Held upAug 29, 202649ers

Ashtyn Davis is NOT on the San Francisco 49ers' initial 53-man roster as announced at the August 30, 2026 cutdown. If his name is on that roster, this is WRONG. Scored off the club's announced initial 53-man roster and nothing else. The practice squad is not the 53, and a signing, claim or elevation after the initial roster is announced is not the 53. A player placed on injured reserve FROM the initial 53 counts as having made it, per the Kaelon Black precedent of 2026-07-29.

Sam Kezar

Held upAug 10, 202649ers

Between 2026-08-11 and 2026-08-29 inclusive, EVERY San Francisco 49ers addition to the 90-man roster is announced together with at least one corresponding subtraction in the same club announcement. Scored off the club's own transaction log at 49ers.com, entry by entry. The take is WRONG if any single dated entry in that window adds one or more players without removing at least one in the same entry. Placements on injured reserve or the physically-unable-to-perform list count as subtractions when they appear in the same entry as a signing, and do NOT count when they appear on their own date. The August 30 cutdown itself is outside the window and does not score.

Sam Kezar

Held upAug 22, 202649ers

In San Francisco's preseason finale at Las Vegas on August 27, 2026, Nick Zakelj plays MORE offensive snaps than Carver Willis. A player absent from the game book's Playtime Percentage page counts as zero, whether he is inactive, injured, or no longer on the roster. The take is CORRECT only if Zakelj's offensive snap count is strictly greater than Willis's. It is WRONG if Willis's is equal to or greater than Zakelj's, and that includes the case where both are zero.

Sam Kezar

MissedAug 16, 202649ers

Robert Jones lines up at RIGHT guard, not left guard, on San Francisco's first offensive series of the August 20, 2026 preseason game at the Chargers. The take is CORRECT if the game book's starting offensive line has Jones at right guard. It is WRONG if he starts at left guard, if he starts anywhere else on the line, or if he does not appear in the game at all. A game San Francisco plays with no Robert Jones in it scores this Wrong; the risk of that is mine and it is stated here rather than argued afterwards.

Sam Kezar

Held upAug 10, 202649ers

Robert Jones, not Connor Colby, takes the first offensive snap at left guard for the San Francisco 49ers in their preseason opener against the Tennessee Titans on 2026-08-13. Scored off the official game book's starting offensive lineup, with the first-drive participation reported by the beat as the second source. The take is WRONG if Colby, Carver Willis, Brett Toth or anyone else opens the game at left guard, and it is WRONG if Jones opens the game at any position other than left guard. If San Francisco does not play the game on August 13, the take voids rather than scores.

Sam Kezar

Held upAug 2, 202649ers

On or before 2026-08-09, San Francisco signs at least one more defensive lineman or edge rusher who is not on its roster as of 2026-08-02. Method, fixed in advance: read the official transaction log at 49ers.com on 2026-08-09 and count signings at position DL or LB of any player absent from the roster page counted on 2026-08-02. Practice-squad signings do not count, because there is no practice squad until after the August 30 cutdown. A player re-signed after being waived counts.

Sam Kezar