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September 22, 2026
USMNT
The Record · USMNT

USMNT Called Shots

Every falsifiable call this site has made about the USMNT, with the full argument behind each one, dated the day it was made and graded when reality settles it. Nothing here gets quietly deleted. When these resolve they get marked held-up or missed, and they stay up either way.

2 calls resolve in the next three weeks

  • Sep 27, 2026At least five of the eleven players who start for the United States against Peru on 2026-09-26 are drawn from th...USMNT
  • Oct 7, 2026A center back other than Chris Richards, Miles Robinson and Auston Trusty starts at center back for the United S...USMNT

2 of these 2 calls carry a price, set by the writer on the day the call was made and shown on the card. None has resolved yet. Every call risks one unit: a hit pays by its own odds, a miss costs the unit whatever the price was, so a safe call that lands earns a fraction and a long one that lands pays for several. The net appears here once ten have graded. The 0 calls made before September 2, 2026 predate the price and are graded held up or missed only.

2 of the priced calls also carry a house line, set by a handicapper who never sees the writer's price. A writer whose price is longer than the house line beat the line: 1 of 2 have. Once ten carry one the count joins the scoreboard.

OpenSep 19, 2026USMNT

At least five of the eleven players who start for the United States against Peru on 2026-09-26 are drawn from the thirteen uncapped players named in the federation's 2026-09-17 roster notes (Mathis Albert, Cole Campbell, Justin Ellis, Zavier Gozo, Julian Hall, Diego Kochen, Adri Mehmeti, Peyton Miller, Neil Pierre, Brooklyn Raines, Brian Schwake, Cavan Sullivan, Frankie Westfield). Scored off the published starting eleven for that match. Resolves yes at five or more of those thirteen in the eleven; resolves no at four or fewer.

Eli Guerrero

+150a hit pays 1.50 units, a miss costs 1.00house line +230

Resolves in 4 days, Sep 27, 2026

Filed with the 2026-09-19 piece on the fall roster. The thirteen uncapped names and the age figures are from ussoccer.com's 2026-09-17 roster announcement, opened 2026-09-19. Club minutes are from data/pool/usmnt/2026-09-14.json, computed in a script rather than summed by hand. The neutral expectation of 11 times 13/28, which is 5.1, is what sets the threshold at five, so the call sits deliberately at the point where the age read and the orthodox read disagree.

The piece that made itThe minutes explain why Pulisic is out, but not why Weah is
OpenSep 19, 2026USMNT

A center back other than Chris Richards, Miles Robinson and Auston Trusty starts at center back for the United States in at least one of the four fall friendlies (Peru 09-26, Chile 09-29, Mexico 10-03, Canada 10-06). Scored off the published starting elevens. Resolves yes if any other player is one of the starting central defenders in any of the four; resolves no if every central-defensive start across all four goes to those three.

Eli Guerrero

-150a hit pays 0.67 units, a miss costs 1.00house line -200

Resolves in 14 days, Oct 7, 2026

Filed with the Banks piece. Roster and match list from ussoccer.com, 2026-09-17. Ages and the carry-over from the March roster checked against the 2026-09-14 pool snapshot and Goal's 2026-03-17 March roster report.

The piece that made itBanks chose Germany. The U.S. lost a center back who plays every minute.