Runs the numbers desk on one rule: a number without its method is a rumor with a decimal point.
When he files: Thursdays, plus any day a number becomes the story.
5 calls resolved. Too few for a hit rate to mean anything, so there is not one.
The 49ers do not acquire a player carrying a 2026 cap hit above $10 million between July 26, 2026 and the November 10, 2026 trade deadline.
Resolves by Nov 10, 2026
The piece that made itAbout $39 Million Of The 49ers' Cap Space Did Not Come From The 2026 Salary CapThe 49ers carry more than $25 million of unused 2026 cap space forward into the 2027 league year.
Resolves by Mar 31, 2027
The piece that made itAbout $39 Million Of The 49ers' Cap Space Did Not Come From The 2026 Salary CapRobbie Ray finishes the 2026 season with an ERA above 4.00.
Resolves in 4 days, Sep 27, 2026
The piece that made itLuis Arraez Is Worth What He Looks Like. Robbie Ray Is Worth 1.3 Runs Less.From August 1 through the end of the 2026 regular season, Tyler Mahle posts a lower ERA than Robbie Ray.
Resolves in 4 days, Sep 27, 2026
The piece that made itFourteen Trades Into July, One Top-100 Name Has Moved, And Not For A RentalThe first veteran contract the San Francisco 49ers sign or extend at $10,000,000 or more in total value, between 2026-08-06 and 2027-04-30, includes at least one void year. Rookie contracts and minimum-salary benefit deals do not qualify. Scored from Over The Cap's contract page for that player, cross-checked at Spotrac. If the qualifying contract carries no void year, the take is scored wrong.
Resolves by Apr 30, 2027
The piece that made itParaag Marathe Left, And Seventy-Two Void Seasons StayedSan Francisco does not select the contract of Parks Harber at any point in the 2026 regular season.
Resolves in 5 days, Sep 28, 2026
The piece that made itThe Giants Have One 40-Man Spot Left. December 1 Is What Makes It Expensive.San Francisco makes two or fewer contract selections between August 14 and the end of the 2026 regular season.
Resolves in 5 days, Sep 28, 2026
The piece that made itThe Giants Have One 40-Man Spot Left. December 1 Is What Makes It Expensive.Golden State finishes the 2026-27 regular season with fewer than 39 regular-season wins.
Resolves by Apr 18, 2027
The piece that made itGolden State's First 44 Games Paid Both Prices Of Curry's Own Bar, 39 Wins And 42Stephen Curry has not signed a contract extension with the Golden State Warriors as of October 21, 2026, the night Golden State opens its season.
Resolves by Oct 22, 2026
The piece that made itGolden State's First 44 Games Paid Both Prices Of Curry's Own Bar, 39 Wins And 42Stephen Curry's three-point percentage for the 2026-27 regular season is below .400.
Resolves by Apr 18, 2027
The piece that made itGolden State's First 44 Games Paid Both Prices Of Curry's Own Bar, 39 Wins And 42Michigan's 2027 recruiting class finishes with a blue-chip share below 68.0 percent in the 247Sports Composite, where blue-chip share is five-stars plus four-stars divided by total commitments on the Composite team-rankings row.
Resolves by Feb 15, 2027
The piece that made itNine Finished Michigan Classes Top Out At 68 Percent Blue-Chip, And The 2027 Board Reads 71.4Michigan's 2027 recruiting class finishes with at least 24 total commitments, as stated on Michigan's row in the 247Sports Composite team rankings.
Resolves by Feb 15, 2027
The piece that made itNine Finished Michigan Classes Top Out At 68 Percent Blue-Chip, And The 2027 Board Reads 71.4Spotrac's published San Francisco 49ers cap space and Over The Cap's are within $5,000,000 of each other on November 5, 2026, in either direction. The take is WRONG if the two published figures differ by more than $5,000,000.
Resolves by Nov 5, 2026
The piece that made itMy August Estimate Said $57 Million. Over The Cap Says $45,532,257.Spotrac and Over The Cap state Trent Williams' 2026 cap number exactly $2,499,997 apart on November 5, 2026. The take is WRONG at any other difference, including a larger one.
Resolves by Nov 5, 2026
The piece that made itMy August Estimate Said $57 Million. Over The Cap Says $45,532,257.San Francisco finishes the 2026 regular season with fewer bases on balls than any other club in Major League Baseball. Scored off the league's official 2026 regular-season team batting record for bases on balls (the season team hitting totals published by Major League Baseball), read the morning after the final day of the regular season. RIGHT if San Francisco's final walk total is strictly lower than every other club's. WRONG if any club finishes with fewer, and WRONG if any club ties San Francisco's total. Intentional walks count, exactly as they do in the official team total. Hit by pitch does not count. If the regular season is shortened and San Francisco plays fewer than 158 games, score it off the games actually played and say so.
Resolves in 5 days, Sep 28, 2026
The piece that made itThe Giants can hit with men on base. They are last at putting them there.At least two of the four players placed on active/PUP on July 25, 2026 (George Kittle, Mykel Williams, Alfred Collins, Isaac Guerendo) are on the reserve/PUP list when the 49ers set their 53-man roster on August 30, 2026.
The piece that made itAbout $39 Million Of The 49ers' Cap Space Did Not Come From The 2026 Salary CapNeither Willy Adames nor Matt Chapman is traded by the August 3, 2026 deadline.
The piece that made itLuis Arraez Is Worth What He Looks Like. Robbie Ray Is Worth 1.3 Runs Less.Luis Arraez is traded by the deadline, and the headline piece coming back is not a consensus top-100 prospect.
The piece that made itLuis Arraez Is Worth What He Looks Like. Robbie Ray Is Worth 1.3 Runs Less.Over The Cap's published San Francisco 49ers 2026 cap space is below $60,000,000 on September 15, 2026. The take is WRONG at $60,000,000 or above.
The piece that made it$11,991,268 Of The 49ers' Cap Space Depends On Which Book You OpenSpotrac's published San Francisco 49ers 2026 cap space exceeds Over The Cap's by more than $5,000,000 on September 15, 2026. The take is WRONG at $5,000,000 or below, and WRONG if Over The Cap's figure is the higher of the two.
The piece that made it$11,991,268 Of The 49ers' Cap Space Depends On Which Book You OpenSpotrac and Over The Cap still state Trent Williams' 2026 cap number more than $2,000,000 apart on September 15, 2026. The take is WRONG at $2,000,000 or below.
The piece that made it$11,991,268 Of The 49ers' Cap Space Depends On Which Book You OpenRead Thursday, September 17, 2026, off the league's play-by-play for all 153 San Francisco finals and cross-checked against Baseball Savant: the Giants have scored 649 runs, 278 of them on home runs, leaving 371 runs that did not come on a swing over the fence. That is 2.42 a game, twenty-sixth of thirty clubs, against a league average of 2.67. The usual explanation does not survive contact with the numbers. San Francisco hits .263 with runners in scoring position, ninth best in baseball and above the league's .253. What it does not do is put men there. The Giants have drawn 429 walks, fewer than any other club, with Toronto next at 432 and the league averaging 513.6. They are ninth in batting average and twenty-seventh in on-base percentage, an eighteen-place fall that is the largest in the major leagues. Their share of runs on home runs, 42.8 percent, is ninth of thirty against a league figure of 40.5 percent, which makes it ordinary. One take filed.
Read in both books Thursday, September 10, 2026: San Francisco leads the NFL in cap space at $45,532,257 on Over The Cap and $50,209,913 on Spotrac. Over The Cap's charges rose $22,523,241 since August 27, against a modelled $9,842,532 to $10,825,332, so the August estimate missed by between $11,697,909 and $12,680,709. The practice squad landed inside the modelled range at $4,617,000 and dead money was light by $756,599. The miss is the reserve lists: injured reserve, reserve/PUP and one suspension carry $39,632,011, of which $3,419,563 reached the published number in August, and none of the three was an input to the estimate. The gap between the two books has collapsed from $11,991,268 to $4,677,656, and $6,302,000 of what is left is the two sites filing one player's absence under different headings at different prices. Trent Williams remains $2,499,997 apart, unchanged for thirty-three days, and that one contract is larger than the entire $2,059,992 active-roster difference. Of three calls resolving September 15, two are on track right and one is wrong by $322,344.
Michigan's 2027 recruiting class is 71.4 percent blue-chip in the 247Sports Composite, fifteen four-stars and no five-stars out of twenty-one commitments, read Thursday morning. Michigan's last nine finished classes ran from 35.0 to 68.0 percent, median 54.5, and they carried between 20 and 26 names. The number being quoted now is a rate over a class that is four commitments short of the program's own median. Measured across the 26 programs on both this morning's 2027 board and the finished 2026 board, the unfinished share runs a median of 6.6 points and a mean of 7.7 points above the finished one, and 20 of the 26 sit above their own finished figure. That puts Michigan's 2027 class on a path to about 64 percent, which would be fifth of the ten classes measured here.
Read in both books Thursday morning: San Francisco leads the league in cap space on Over The Cap at $68,055,498 and on Spotrac at $80,046,766. The $11,991,268 between them is not an error in either. It decomposes into a cap limit, a pricing difference on the top 51 contracts, injured reserve, the exempt list and dead money, and it sums to the dollar. What the accounting flip at the start of the regular season adds is between $9,842,532 and $10,825,332, which is less than the two books already disagree by.
Stephen Curry set his own bar in April: keep the core together, stay alive, get a chance at a playoff series. Priced against five full seasons of Western Conference results, the cheap reading of that sentence costs a median of 39 wins and the expensive one costs 42. Golden State won 37. Its record before Butler's injury was a 47-win pace and its record after was a 26-win pace, and the published data cannot say which absence caused which.
Counted entry by entry Thursday morning: 45 names on the Giants' 40-man roster, six on the 60-day injured list, 39 against the limit, one spot open. Two contracts have been selected in the last six days and neither was a prospect decision. What a September call-up costs in a year when two labor agreements expire at different times, and the part of it nobody outside the building can see.
Twenty-one contracts on the 49ers' 2026 cap sheet carry void years, 72 of them in total. Mike Evans' deal decomposed to the dollar, why the books close $450,000 short, and the reason the executive credited with that architecture had already handed off the job that produces it.
Fourteen completed July trades, one top-100 name, and it moved for a controllable infielder rather than a rental. Against that market, a buyer takes on two and a half times as much salary for Robbie Ray as for Tyler Mahle, whose component numbers are nine hundredths of a run apart.
The 49ers have more cap space than any team in football. Roughly 55 percent of it arrived from outside the 2026 salary cap, and about $7 million of that is an insurance policy paying out on Nick Bosa's knee.
One of the Giants' two rentals is having a season the components support. The other has the rotation's best ERA and its second-worst FIP. Pricing them the same way is the mistake available between now and August 3.
