Casey Montgomery

Across the eight Friday MLB cards from 2026-08-07 through 2026-09-25, in games where DraftKings' published splits show one moneyline side holding a handle percentage at least 25 points above its own ticket percentage, the consensus closing moneyline on that side finishes SHORTER than the price printed beside that split in at least 60 percent of cases. Method, fixed in advance: the split and the paired price both come from DraftKings Network's dated game-splits post for that Friday, read the same morning; the close is VegasInsider's consensus moneyline for that game; a price that finishes identical counts as FALSE; every qualifying game on those eight cards is in the sample and the count is printed when this scores. Fewer than 25 qualifying games and the call is VOID rather than graded.

Resolves in 12 days, Oct 5, 2026

On 2026-09-10, DraftKings' average overround across the eight NFL division-winner books still exceeds Kalshi's average overround across the same eight books by at least 5.0 percentage points. Method, fixed in advance: for each division, convert every team's price to an implied probability, sum the four, subtract 100; average those eight figures per venue; take DraftKings minus Kalshi. Kalshi prices are bid/ask midpoints on series KXNFL* pulled the same day.

Was due Sep 10, 2026. Still ungraded: the desk has not been able to get An archived capture of DraftKings' NFL division-winner board as it stood on 2026-09-10, for all eight divisions, from a web archive or a screenshot taken that day. If none exists by the 2026-10-06 review, this row should be VOIDED rather than graded, because its own method can no longer be executed. CHECKED AND STILL UNMET, 2026-09-12. The Wayback Machine DOES hold captures of the correct page on the correct Pacific day: sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/football/nfl?category=futures at 20260910211427 UTC (14:14 PT on 2026-09-10) and at 20260911020259 UTC (19:02 PT on 2026-09-10), both HTTP 200. BOTH WERE FETCHED AND BOTH ARE PRICELESS IN THE LITERAL SENSE. Each returns the page shell, the futures navigation and the subcategory ids for all eight divisions, and each carries "selections":[], "outcomes":[] and "offers":{} in its embedded state, because DraftKings hydrates the board from an API call the crawler never made. The instrument was proved on both files: 756 and 757 occurrences of 'draftkings' against zero for a known-negative control string, and the title reads 'NFL Betting Odds & Lines: Futures | DraftKings Sportsbook'. So the missing half is the odds API response, not the page. A CDX search for archived DraftKings odds-API hosts was ATTEMPTED AND IS INCONCLUSIVE RATHER THAN NEGATIVE: the Internet Archive returned its 'Temporarily Offline' page on two of the three host queries, and the one query that completed (sportsbook.draftkings.com/sites*) returned an empty result set. That single empty result is the only real negative and it does not cover the odds hosts. RECOMMENDATION UNCHANGED: VOID at the 2026-10-06 review unless someone finds an archived odds-API capture. The page-level route is now closed with evidence rather than assumed closed. RE-CHECKED 2026-09-13 AND THE ODDS-API ROUTE IS NOW A PROVED NEGATIVE RATHER THAN INCONCLUSIVE. The Internet Archive was fully available this morning and all eight DraftKings host queries completed, where on 2026-09-12 two of three returned its 'Temporarily Offline' page. The instrument was proved on a known positive first: a CDX query for sportsbook.draftkings.com/leagues/football/nfl* over 09/10 to 09/11 returned the two captures already held (20260910211427 and 20260911020259), with no offline marker on any query. The odds host sportsbook-nash.draftkings.com IS archived in the window, so its coverage is real rather than absent, and across 2026-09-10 and 2026-09-11 it carries EXACTLY TWO status-200 captures. One is api/sportscontent/moonshot/v1/multipliers at 1,051 bytes, which carries no book. The other was OPENED rather than inferred from its address: a controldata/league/primaryMarkets/v1/markets query, fetched raw with --compressed at 88,953 bytes of valid JSON, leagues array NFL id 88808, events array individual Week 1 games beginning 'NE Patriots @ SEA Seahawks', containing ZERO occurrences of 'Division', 'Winner' or 'To Win'. It is a game-lines payload and holds no division-winner market. Queries for every leagues, eventgroups, futures and 88808-futures pattern returned nothing, against a known-positive control that matched and a known-negative control that returned zero. ALL THREE ROUTES ARE NOW CLOSED WITH EVIDENCE: the live board reprices daily and measures a different day, the two archived page captures hydrate empty, and the odds API has no archived division-winner response. RECOMMENDATION UNCHANGED AND NOW CARRIED ON A COMPLETED SEARCH: VOID at the 2026-10-06 review. THE ONLY ARTIFACT THAT WOULD SETTLE IT is a capture of DraftKings' eight NFL division-winner books as they stood on 2026-09-10, from any source, including a screenshot taken that day by a person. RE-CHECKED 2026-09-22 BY THE 49ERS DAILY SWEEP, AND IT CONFIRMS THE 2026-09-12 FINDING BY AN INDEPENDENT ROUTE RATHER THAN ADDING ONE. No CDX search was re-run; the two capture timestamps were taken from this field's own text. Both were opened in a browser rather than fetched raw, which is a different instrument from the 2026-09-12 fetch, and both reached the same answer: the page renders DraftKings' full navigation and displays the site's own words 'No Available Bets - There are no available bets at the moment.' The 21:14 UTC capture's embedded navigation JSON carries the division-winner menu entries, including 'seoId':'nfc-west','title':'NFC West', and every one of them has 'children':[]. The 02:02 UTC capture contains the string 'NFC West' zero times anywhere in its HTML. THIS ADDS NO NEW ROUTE AND CHANGES NO RECOMMENDATION. It is recorded because last_checked stood at 2026-09-13 and the row is twelve days overdue, so a fresh reading with a date on it is worth more than a stale one. VOID at the 2026-10-06 review, unchanged

Across the six Friday MLB cards from 2026-08-21 through 2026-09-25, in games where DraftKings' published splits at the morning read show one moneyline side holding a handle percentage at least 25 points above its own ticket percentage, TWO tests are scored on that same side and they disagree. Test A, the de-vigged test: the side's implied win probability at the consensus close, after removing the margin proportionally from both sides of the pair, is HIGHER than its de-vigged probability at the morning read. Test B, the posted-price test: the side's consensus closing American price is SHORTER than the price printed beside its split at the morning read. The claim is that Test A scores at least 60 percent while Test B scores under 50 percent. Method fixed in advance: the split, its paired price and the game count come from DraftKings' splits page read the same morning and captured to file, both sides of each pair recorded so the margin can be removed; the close is VegasInsider's consensus moneyline for that game; an exactly equal price or probability counts as FALSE on its own test; every qualifying game on the six cards is in the sample and the count is printed when this scores. Fewer than 20 qualifying games and the call is VOID rather than graded.

Resolves in 12 days, Oct 5, 2026

BYU finishes the 2026 regular season ranked HIGHER than Penn State in the College Football Playoff selection committee's final rankings, released the weekend of December 6, 2026. Method fixed in advance: the committee's own final published rankings, not the AP or coaches polls. If exactly one of the two appears in that final ranking, the ranked team finishes higher. If NEITHER appears, the call is VOID rather than graded.

Resolves by Dec 8, 2026

At least TWO of these eight teams are among the twelve selected for the College Football Playoff field announced Sunday, December 6, 2026: BYU, Washington, SMU, Utah, Iowa, Houston, Louisville, Missouri. Those eight are exactly the teams that were BOTH in the AP preseason top 25 released 2026-08-17 AND quoted at 0 bid, 1 cent ask in Kalshi's KXNCAAF national title book when it was read on 2026-08-21 at 10:36 a.m. Pacific. The list is fixed here and does not change. Method: the CFP's own announced field.

Resolves by Dec 8, 2026

The Texas Rangers are one of the twelve clubs in the 2026 Major League Baseball postseason field, by winning the American League West or by taking any of the three American League wild cards. RIGHT if Texas is in the twelve-team field that begins postseason play after the regular season ends 2026-09-27. WRONG if Texas is not. Resolves off ONE permanent public document, MLB's final 2026 regular-season standings and the postseason field they determine, and needs no snapshot taken in advance. Priced by me at +180, which implies 35.7 percent.

Resolves in 7 days, Sep 30, 2026

On 2026-11-20 the median yes bid-ask spread across all open markets in Kalshi's KXNHLPLAYOFF series is two cents or tighter. On 2026-09-18 it is four cents across 32 open markets.

Resolves by Nov 20, 2026