Michigan State's top three backs are out, and its quarterback is questionable
Michigan is a 14-point favorite over Michigan State tonight, a line that asks for about 27 points. The Spartans list their three leading running backs Out and Alessio Milivojevic Questionable. Michigan has won one game by more than seven all season.
Michigan State plays at Michigan tonight at Michigan Stadium. Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. Eastern, 4:30 p.m. Pacific, and the game streams on Peacock. Michigan is 5-3 and 2-3 in the Big Ten after winning 28-21 at Rutgers, and it is unranked. Michigan State is 2-6 and 0-5 in its first season under Pat Fitzgerald, coming off a bye and a 28-10 loss at UCLA. Michigan has won the last four meetings, the most recent 31-20 in East Lansing last October.
DraftKings had Michigan by 14 with a total of 39.5 at 5:45 a.m. Eastern. The spread opened at 16.5. The moneyline was Michigan -625, Michigan State +455. Those numbers split to about Michigan 27, Michigan State 13.
Michigan has scored 27 or more twice in eight games, 52 against UTEP and 28 last week. And it has won one game by more than seven: UTEP, by 35. Every other game, the three losses included, was decided by seven or fewer.
What Michigan State is missing#
The Big Ten's Friday availability report lists 13 Michigan State players Out. Three of them are the backs who have carried the running game: Jaziun Patterson (76 carries, 327 yards, five touchdowns), Cam Edwards (64 for 304) and Marvis Parrish (35 for 105). Together that is 175 carries for 736 yards. Every other running back on the roster combined has 33 carries. The man with the most of them is Kenneth Williams, No. 32, 19 for 64.
The quarterback question is open. Alessio Milivojevic, No. 11, is listed Questionable. He has played in seven games and is 121 of 185 for 1,263 yards with seven touchdowns and three interceptions. He did not play at UCLA, where Leo Hannan, No. 15, and Kayd Coffman, No. 10, split the passing, 13 of 25 for 109 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions. Cam Fancher, who backed up Milivojevic earlier in the season, is Out. The report's final update posts two hours before kickoff.
Tight end Jayden Savoury, who has 29 catches, is Out. Safety Devin Vaught, No. 2, Michigan State's leading tackler with 54, is Questionable, as are two cornerbacks.
Michigan's quarterback, named this time#
Kyle Whittingham said Monday that Tommy Carr, No. 14, will take the first snap, the first time Michigan has named him a starter before a game. Carr was 22 of 27 for 266 yards at Rutgers and ran 12 times for 54 yards and two touchdowns, both on third down. He is 49 of 68 for 503 yards this season with two touchdowns and one interception. Bryce Underwood, No. 19, started the first six games and is the backup.
The men to watch, with the numbers to find them by#
Savion Hiter, No. 5, and Jordan Marshall, No. 23, running backs. Hiter has 87 carries for 314 yards, Marshall 86 for 319. At Rutgers, Hiter had 20 of the backs' 31 carries.
JJ Buchanan, No. 6, receiver, has 38 catches for 602 yards and five touchdowns. Andrew Marsh, No. 3, has 39 for 360.
Troy Bowles, No. 18, linebacker, leads Michigan with 57 tackles. Nathaniel Staehling, No. 44, linebacker, has 43 and returned an interception 79 yards for a touchdown at Minnesota.
For Michigan State: Chrishon McCray, No. 13, and Rodney Bullard Jr., No. 3, receivers, have 29 and 21 catches. On defense, Eli Coenen, No. 96, defensive lineman, has 3.5 sacks, and Dion Crawford, No. 18, linebacker, has 48 tackles.
The X factor: Daley and Nichols, back on the edge#
John Henry Daley, No. 90, and Dom Nichols, No. 8, defensive ends, are listed Probable. Both were game-time decisions at Rutgers and neither played. Daley has 3.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss, Nichols 2.5 and 5.
Michigan State has been sacked 24 times in eight games, three a game. Michigan has 17 sacks. Without its three backs, Michigan State's plain path is to throw, and that runs straight into the two men Michigan was missing a week ago.
What has to happen is for Daley and Nichols to make second down long early, before Michigan State can settle into short throws. Milivojevic, if he plays, has completed 65.4% of his passes. Hannan and Coffman completed 13 of 25 at UCLA, and two of the other 12 were intercepted. If the edge gets home, Michigan's offense starts more drives in good field position, and 27 points looks reachable. If Michigan State's quarterback gets the ball out on time, this is another game decided by a score, which is what Michigan's games have been.
Availability#
From the Big Ten's Friday report:
Michigan. Out: receivers Kendrick Bell and Braydon Alford, running back Micah Ka'apana, defensive end Julius Holly and offensive linemen Ace Hamilton and Andrew Sprague. Questionable: cornerback Shamari Earls, No. 2, and tight end Hogan Hansen, No. 80, who has 14 catches. Probable: safeties Rod Moore Jr., No. 1, and Jordan Young, No. 6, Daley, Nichols, and offensive linemen Jake Guarnera, No. 53, and Brady Norton, No. 70.
Michigan State. Out: Patterson, Edwards, Parrish, Fancher, Savoury, cornerbacks Tre Bell and Charles Brantley, linebacker Jordan Hall, safety Brayden Thomas, fullback Jay Coyne, defensive lineman Ben Roberts, offensive lineman Tristan Comer and tight end Joe Caudill. Questionable: Milivojevic, Vaught, receiver Charles Taplin and cornerbacks Keshawn Williams and Tyran Chappell.
The report carries designations, not injuries.
The prediction#
Michigan's defense has held all eight opponents to 21 or fewer and allows 3.0 yards a carry, sacks counted. Michigan State brings it a backup running back and possibly a backup quarterback. Michigan's offense has averaged 21.3 points and has made a habit of keeping games close.
Michigan 24, Michigan State 13. The pass rush is the difference against a depleted Michigan State offense, and Carr's offense does enough to win by two scores without reaching the number the market set.
Sources: mgoblue.com schedule and roster pages and msuspartans.com roster and coaches pages, opened November 7; the Big Ten's football availability report, Friday edition, opened November 7; CollegeFootballData game, media, season-stat, player-stat, game-player, matchup and lines feeds for 2026, the lines at 5:45 a.m. Eastern November 7; Associated Press, November 2, on Carr's start; Michigan's box score and the published takeaways, Michigan at Rutgers, October 31.
