Rutgers allows 5.8 yards a carry, and Michigan has scored more than 21 once

Michigan plays at Rutgers this morning at SHI Stadium in Piscataway, New Jersey. Kickoff is at 12:30 p.m. Eastern, 9:30 a.m. Pacific, and the Big Ten Network has it. Michigan is 4-3 and 1-3 in the Big Ten after losing 13-6 to Indiana in overtime, and it is unranked. Rutgers is 2-5 and 1-3, coming off a 42-14 loss at Northwestern. It opened the season by losing at home to UMass, 37-21.

DraftKings had Michigan by 15.5 with a total of 46.5 at 5:44 a.m. Eastern. The spread opened at 14 and the total at 47.5. The moneyline was Michigan -700, Rutgers +500. Those numbers split to about Michigan 31, Rutgers 15.5.

That is the question of the morning, and it is about one side of the ball. Michigan has scored 142 points in seven games, 20.3 a game, and has topped 21 once, 52 against UTEP. The market wants 31 from it today.

Why the market thinks it gets there#

Rutgers has allowed 233 points, 33.3 a game, and 28 or more to six of its seven opponents. The exception was Howard. Opponents have run 239 times for 1,394 yards against it, 5.8 a carry with sacks counted, and SP+ rates its defense 124th in FBS. Northwestern ran 41 times for 283 yards against it last week.

Michigan's offense ranks 86th in the same ratings, which is the gap the line is built on. Its running backs carried 26 times for 52 yards against Indiana. Rutgers has allowed 150 rushing yards or more to five of its seven opponents.

Rutgers without its quarterback#

The Big Ten's Friday availability report lists Dylan Lonergan, No. 12, quarterback, Out. Lonergan left the Northwestern game after a blow to the head 6:25 into the first quarter, per the Associated Press, and did not return. He also missed the second game of the season, at Boston College, after he was hurt late in the opener.

In those two games Rutgers' quarterbacks went 27 of 54 for 330 yards, three touchdowns and six interceptions. Rutgers scored 21 at Boston College and 14 at Northwestern. AJ Surace, No. 10, started the Boston College game and took over at Northwestern; he is 40 of 71 for 539 yards, six touchdowns and five interceptions this season.

Rutgers has thrown 12 interceptions in seven games. Michigan's defense has seven interceptions and nine takeaways in all.

The men to watch, with the numbers to find them by#

Tommy Carr, No. 14, quarterback. On3's Pete Nakos reported Wednesday that Michigan is expected to start Carr again. Michigan has not announced it. In his first start he was 20 of 32 for 167 yards with an interception and a lost fumble. Kyle Whittingham said Monday that Carr is "not the one to shoulder the blame." Bryce Underwood, No. 19, played one snap against Indiana.

Jordan Marshall, No. 23, and Savion Hiter, No. 5, running backs. Marshall has 81 carries for 319 yards, Hiter 67 for 238.

JJ Buchanan, No. 6, receiver, has 33 catches for 539 yards and four touchdowns. Andrew Marsh, No. 3, has 32 for 309.

Troy Bowles, No. 18, linebacker, leads Michigan with 55 tackles and is listed Probable. Zeke Berry, No. 10, cornerback, intercepted Josh Hoover last week, the first interception Hoover had thrown all season.

For Rutgers: Antwan Raymond, No. 3, running back, has 123 carries for 648 yards and six touchdowns, and ran 18 times for 150 at Northwestern. KJ Duff, No. 8, receiver, has 45 catches for 774 yards and nine of Rutgers' 16 touchdown passes. He is Questionable. On defense, Bradlee Jones, No. 5, defensive back, and Moses Walker, No. 2, linebacker, have two interceptions each.

The X factor: Raymond against Michigan's run defense#

Rutgers will want to run, and not only because Raymond is good: its quarterbacks threw six interceptions in 54 passes in the two games without Lonergan. Raymond averages 5.3 a carry. Michigan has allowed 669 rushing yards on 236 carries, 2.8 a carry with sacks counted, and three rushing touchdowns in seven games.

What has to happen is for Michigan to keep Raymond near its season average or below it, so that Rutgers is throwing on second-and-long by the second quarter. That is where the short fields come from, and short fields are where Michigan's offense has scored lately: all three of its touchdowns against Penn State followed takeaways. If Raymond runs for 150 again, Rutgers keeps the ball out of Michigan's hands and out of its backup's, Duff does not have to be healthy, and Michigan has to drive the length of the field for every point it needs to cover.

Availability#

From the Big Ten's Friday report:

Michigan. Out: receivers Kendrick Bell and Braydon Alford, cornerback Jo'Ziah Edmond, running back Micah Ka'apana, defensive end Julius Holly and offensive linemen Ace Hamilton and Andrew Sprague. Questionable: safeties Rod Moore Jr., No. 1, and Jordan Young, No. 6; defensive ends Dom Nichols, No. 8, and John Henry Daley, No. 90; defensive tackle Enow Etta, No. 17; and right tackle Blake Frazier, No. 77. Nichols and Frazier were ruled out on game day last week. Probable: Bowles and lineman Jake Guarnera, No. 53.

Rutgers. Out: Lonergan and defensive backs Kaj Sanders and Zahmir Dawud. Doubtful: linebacker Joey Kopec and lineman Tyler Needham. Questionable: Duff, defensive back Kevin Levy, linebacker Ty Morris and defensive lineman Keshon Griffin.

The report carries designations, not injuries. The game-day update posts two hours before kickoff.

The prediction#

Michigan's defense has held all seven opponents to 20 or fewer, and Rutgers brings it a backup quarterback. Michigan's offense has not scored 31 against anyone but UTEP, and six of its seven games have been decided by seven points or fewer.

Michigan 27, Rutgers 13. Raymond gets his yards and Rutgers still has to throw, the interceptions come, and Michigan's offense finishes enough of the short fields to win comfortably without reaching the number the market set.

Sources: mgoblue.com schedule and roster pages and scarletknights.com roster page, opened October 31; the Big Ten's football availability report, Friday edition, opened October 31; CollegeFootballData game, media, season-stat, player-stat, game-player, rankings, SP+ and lines feeds for 2026, the lines at 5:44 a.m. Eastern October 31; Associated Press (Matt Carlson), Northwestern 42, Rutgers 14, October 24; ESPN (Adam Rittenberg), September 8, on Lonergan's opener injury; Bleacher Report (Julia Stumbaugh), October 28, for On3's report and Whittingham's Monday remarks; Michigan's box score and the published takeaways, Indiana at Michigan, October 24.