Both Nashville goals followed faceoffs Wennberg lost
Alexander Wennberg went 0 of 9 against Ryan O'Reilly and Steven Stamkos as San Jose lost its late lead and won in a shootout.
Both Nashville goals followed faceoff wins over Alexander Wennberg, and San Jose's lead disappeared one second from its first regulation win. The Sharks won 3-2 in Thursday's shootout after leading for 54:29 of regulation's 60:00.
Even at five#
San Jose won the regulation five-on-five scoring 2-0 while MoneyPuck's expected goals were almost level, 1.78 for the Sharks and 1.80 for Nashville over 44:46. Mason Marchment and Will Smith supplied the goals; Nashville's answers required a power play and an extra attacker. The third period had already tilted toward Nashville at five-on-five, with San Jose trailing 0.37 to 0.68 in expected goals and 13 to 20 in attempts.
The matchups#
At 8:59 of the third, Stamkos beat Wennberg on an offensive-zone power-play draw. Jonathan Marchessault put a shot on goal at 9:02; O'Reilly scored at 9:05, six seconds after the faceoff. At 19:42, O'Reilly beat Wennberg on a neutral-zone draw with Nashville playing six-on-five. Matthew Wood's shot reached the net at 19:52, Roman Josi's attempt was blocked at 19:56, and Stamkos tied it at 19:59, 17 seconds after the draw.
Wennberg finished 0 of 9 against O'Reilly and Stamkos, and 9 of 14 against everyone else, including overtime. In his Oct. 15 YouTube review, Professor Hockey wanted Zack Ostapchuk taking the late draw: "I feel as though you should go with the hot hand in that spot." The NHL play-by-play corrects the count behind that criticism: the 19:42 draw was Wennberg's fifth against O'Reilly, leaving him 0 for 4 beforehand. Ostapchuk won 7 of 12 overall and 4 of 6 in the third, without taking a draw against O'Reilly.
Professor Hockey also said Wennberg was otherwise good defensively. His line with Tyler Toffoli and Marchment produced Marchment's goal and a 0.52-to-0.33 expected-goals edge in 9:54 together at five-on-five.
The arguments against#
Three arguments against blaming the draw, and the first one is real.
- Nashville still needed three six-on-five attempts in the 17 seconds after the draw, ending with Stamkos scoring from 34 feet.
- Ostapchuk never faced O'Reilly at the dot, so his 7 wins in 12 draws came against other centers.
- Kiefer Sherwood missed the empty net from 78 feet at 19:32 with a one-goal lead, and San Jose's power play went 0 for 3 with 0.76 expected goals over 6:00 at five-on-four.
The goalies#
San Jose's Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 32 of 34 shots, including all 20 at five-on-five in regulation, then all three Nashville shootout attempts. MoneyPuck assigned 2.69 expected goals to the shots on goal he faced through overtime; Nashville's Juuse Saros saved 30 of 32 against 2.23 expected goals on shots on goal.
The blue line#
Michael Kesselring's regulation five-on-five minutes brought a 25-to-16 attempts edge and 1.12-to-0.57 expected goals in 14:16; Nolan Allan had 0.84 to 0.27 in 11:32 and was on for both Sharks goals. Darnell Nurse did not dress, and Professor Hockey would sit Dmitry Orlov when Nurse returns. Orlov's regulation five-on-five expected goals were 0.53 for and 0.99 against in 15:28.
The selections#
Dom Cahill's stars
- Alex Nedeljkovic, San Jose: 32 saves on 34 shots and all three shootout attempts stopped.
- Michael Kesselring, San Jose: a 1.12-to-0.57 five-on-five expected-goals edge in 14:16, plus the assist on Smith's goal.
- Nolan Allan, San Jose: both Sharks goals on his five-on-five shifts, with 15:28 total ice time, lowest among San Jose's six defensemen.
The NHL's stars
- Juuse Saros, Nashville: 30 saves on 32 shots.
- Steven Stamkos, Nashville: the six-on-five tying goal at 19:59 of the third.
- Macklin Celebrini, San Jose: the winning shootout goal.
No name is shared between them, and Celebrini's official star came on a shootout goal with zero points in regulation or overtime.
The season sample#
San Jose is 4-3-0, with all four wins after regulation and zero regulation wins through seven games. Thursday's near-even five-on-five expected goals enter a season total still at 39.0 percent in MoneyPuck's team file across seven games, against 47.6 percent across 82 games last season.
Sources: NHL gamecenter landing, boxscore, play-by-play and right rail; NHL shift charts; NHL schedule; MoneyPuck game data and team season files; Professor Hockey's game review (YouTube, Oct. 15).
