Celebrini's line won the chances, but Toffoli was on for both regulation goals

San Jose ended a five-game losing streak by beating the Islanders 3-2 in an eight-round shootout at SAP Center on Monday. Both of its goals in regulation came with Tyler Toffoli on the ice, on five-on-five shots MoneyPuck valued at 0.086 and 0.094 expected goals. The line that carried the chances scored none of them.

The top line#

Misa, Celebrini and Smith had the chances without the points. MoneyPuck's line rows put them at 1.04 expected goals for and 0.61 against in 13.0 five-on-five minutes together, with no goals either way. Celebrini finished with no point despite 6 shots on goal and 25:40, generating the most individual expected goals of any skater in the game at 0.96 across all situations.

The power play supplied another empty return. During the two-minute four-on-three, San Jose generated 5 unblocked attempts worth 0.82 expected goals. Islanders goaltender Ilya Sorokin saved the four-on-three shots from Celebrini (0.177), Smith (0.212) and Misa (0.265); Smith also hit the post and Stenberg shot wide. Nothing went in. In three-on-three overtime, Sorokin saved Celebrini's shot from 18 feet, worth 0.340 expected goals on that attempt.

Toffoli's shifts#

Toffoli played 10:57 against a season average of 13:20 across 20 games. Three of San Jose's 12 forwards played less: Dellandrea, Goodrow and Ostapchuk. MoneyPuck's player rows give Toffoli 9.3 five-on-five minutes, with San Jose ahead 0.82 to 0.16 in expected goals and scoring both its regulation goals.

Stenberg's tying tip-in came with Dellandrea and Toffoli. That unit had 0.56 expected goals for and 0.04 against in 6.1 five-on-five minutes. Toffoli's own goal came alongside Marchment and Misa, with Orlov and Pohlkamp on defense, during a five-on-five shift lasting 0.3 minutes.

The goaltenders#

The NHL box score gives Sorokin 37 saves on 39 shots and San Jose goaltender Yaroslav Askarov 30 on 32. MoneyPuck valued the shots on goal they faced in regulation and overtime at 3.16 and 2.51 expected goals, respectively. These are the value of the shots faced, not a goals-saved measure. The shootout required eight rounds and opened with 15 straight saves before Stenberg scored on the 16th attempt; Askarov stopped all 8 Islanders attempts.

The season frame#

One game is one game. MoneyPuck's season summary had San Jose at a 43.2 percent five-on-five expected-goal share through the 19 games before Monday, against Monday's 51.6 percent. Through those 19 games, the Sharks shot 6.15 percent at five-on-five, 32nd of 32 teams, with 23 goals on 374 shots. Monday supplied 2 goals on 29 five-on-five shots.

Against me#

The arguments against this, and the first one is real.

1. MoneyPuck's score-and-venue adjustment reverses the team's five-on-five chances to San Jose 2.28, Islanders 2.42. The adjustment weighs score state and home ice; the Sharks were at home and trailed for 21:28 of regulation.
2. Askarov's shootout turned one point into two. The NHL's first star stopped 8 of 8 shootout attempts.
3. The Stenberg, Dellandrea and Toffoli unit's five-on-five advantage of 0.56 to 0.04 expected goals belongs to 6.1 minutes of one game.

Three stars#

1. Tyler Toffoli (SJS). A goal and an assist, and on the ice for both San Jose goals in regulation in 9.3 five-on-five minutes, during which San Jose out-chanced New York 0.82 to 0.16 in expected goals.
2. Ilya Sorokin (NYI). Stopped 37 of 39 San Jose shots on goal worth 3.16 expected goals, including all three on a two-minute four-on-three, then 7 of 8 in the shootout.
3. Ivar Stenberg (SJS). The tying tip-in at five-on-five and the only goal of an eight-round shootout, with 0.41 individual five-on-five expected goals, the most of any San Jose skater.

The NHL's order was Askarov, Sorokin, Toffoli. Askarov misses this list because his regulation-and-overtime workload was 32 shots worth 2.51 expected goals against Sorokin's 39 worth 3.16, with each allowing 2 goals. His case rests on the shootout's 8 saves on 8 attempts.

Sources: NHL game data, box score and play-by-play for game 2026020285; NHL standings, team and skater statistics; MoneyPuck game, line and team data.