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October 14, 2026
Player deep dive

Celebrini is on all four of Smith's points, and none came at five-on-five

Will Smith's skating and shooting rates match or beat 2025-26 through six games. San Jose's five-on-five expected-goal share is 30.4 percent with him on the ice and 40.4 percent without him.

DC
Dom CahillOct 14, 20265 min read
Every call on this site goes on a public ledger and gets graded. The misses stay up.
Will Smith skating in San Jose's black sweater with the teal-and-white fin crest, his stick held out to his left, with out-of-focus boards and arena advertising behind him.

Macklin Celebrini appears on all four scoring plays behind Will Smith's two goals and two assists through six games. Against Florida on Oct. 1, Smith scored shorthanded, scored on the power play and assisted on Luca Cagnoni's three-on-three overtime winner. Celebrini assisted on each. Smith's point in the five games since was an Oct. 13 power-play assist on Celebrini's goal against Boston. None of those points came at five-on-five, according to the NHL's game summaries.

The box score resembles last October's, and the skating and shooting rates show no decline. What has changed is San Jose's five-on-five offense with Smith on the ice, measured against the same team with him off it. MoneyPuck puts the Sharks' five-on-five expected-goal share at 30.4 percent in his 89.6 minutes and 40.4 percent in the 211.3 minutes without him.

The opening six, twice#

Through his first six games last season Smith had four points and 13 shots; through six this season he has four and 11. His all-situations ice time per game has risen to 18:59 from 16:43 in that opening stretch and 18:11 across last season's 69 games. At 21, he has a recent example of an October line understating his eventual production. He finished 2025-26 with 59 points in 69 games, including 37 at five-on-five after recording one there in his opening six.

The legs and the release#

NHL Edge's rate comparisons cover six games this season and 69 last season. All-situations distance per 60 minutes is 9.63 miles against 9.45, the 41st percentile against the 31st; league averages are 9.66 and 9.60. At even strength, he covers 9.73 miles per 60 minutes against 9.62, the 27th percentile against the 28th, with league averages of 9.93 and 9.83. Those percentile movements describe direction in an uneven early-season pool. His all-situations bursts from 20 to 22 mph run at 1.5 per game against 1.36 over those respective samples.

Both maximums are compared over six games each because a season high can only rise with additional games. His fastest burst through six games this season is 21.90 mph. None of Edge's ten fastest dated bursts from last season came in his first six games, and the slowest of those ten is 21.48 mph, so his opening six last October stayed under 21.48. His hardest shot is down to 78.10 mph from 83.41 over those matching stretches.

Average shot speed, across all situations, is up to 62.46 mph over this season's six games from 55.67 over last season's 69, the 84th percentile against the 76th. The average and the maximum disagree without diagnosing a different player. This season, eight of his 11 shots on goal came from mid-range and two from high-danger areas, with one of his two goals coming from the crease.

The minutes at five-on-five#

These are MoneyPuck's five-on-five figures, each row with its own minutes.

StretchFive-on-five minutesExpected-goal share with Smith onSan Jose without himExpected goals for per 60Expected goals against per 60Goals for and against
2026-27, 6 games89.630.4%40.4%1.423.261 to 7
2025-26, first 6 games76.139.9%45.2%2.694.062 to 4
2025-26, 69 games982.247.9%47.6%2.502.7250 to 37

Smith's share sits 10.0 percentage points below San Jose's without him, against 5.3 points below through last season's first six games and 0.3 points above over all 69. The drop is on the offensive side. Expected goals for per 60 five-on-five minutes fell to 1.42 from 2.69 in last season's opening stretch and 2.50 overall; against rates are 3.26, 4.06 and 2.72, respectively, over the table's minutes. Actual goals are one to seven with Smith on, against eight to 18 for San Jose overall.

His own attempts per 60 five-on-five minutes are 11.4 over 89.6 minutes, against 12.6 over 76.1 and 13.6 over 982.2, and he has no five-on-five points this season. Edge's offensive-zone share of even-strength time is 36.9 percent, the 10th percentile, over six games against 40.3 percent over 69. MoneyPuck's game-level split follows whether Celebrini dressed. Smith's share was 40.4 percent in 61.9 five-on-five minutes in the four games Celebrini played, and 19.3 percent in 27.7 minutes in the two he missed.

The arguments against me#

  1. Last October's expected goals against rate was worse, at 4.06 per 60 five-on-five minutes over 76.1 minutes, and Smith finished at a 47.9 percent share over 982.2 minutes.
  2. The two games Celebrini missed hold 27.7 of Smith's 89.6 five-on-five minutes, at a 19.3 percent share. In the four games Celebrini played, Smith's share was 40.4 percent, the same figure as San Jose's six-game share without him.
  3. Actual goals can exaggerate the chance imbalance. MoneyPuck has expected goals at 2.12 to 4.86 against actual goals of one to seven over 89.6 five-on-five minutes. Smith's own all-situations shooting has produced two goals on 11 shots through six games.

Last season's portrait#

Smith's 2025-26 card placed him in the second-line tier, with a Pine Net Rating of 9.2 per 82 games, the 71st percentile among 469 forwards. Offense ranked in the 88th percentile and defense in the 12th. This season's rating is a season total of minus-2.47 through six games, placing him 18th among 20 rated San Jose skaters; Celebrini leads at plus-1.41.

The open call under this byline, filed Sept. 16, has Smith finishing 2026-27 with an on-ice five-on-five goal share below 52 percent. It currently stands at one goal for and seven against in 89.6 five-on-five minutes.

Sources: NHL Edge (2025-26 and 2026-27); the NHL's game logs, stats feed and game summaries; MoneyPuck's season and game-by-game files (2025-26 and 2026-27).

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On the record

Called Shots →
OpenJul 29, 2026

Macklin Celebrini's $18.8 million average annual value is NOT the highest in the NHL on July 29, 2027. Scored off any active standard player contract carrying a higher AAV on that date, signed by any player on any club, and counting a signed extension that has not yet taken effect. A hit means at least one such contract exists; a miss means $18.8 million still stands alone at the top.

This follows from the piece's own argument rather than from a hunch about a particular player. The upper limit went from $95.5 million to $104 million to $113.5 million in three seasons, which moves the 20 percent individual ceiling from $19.1 million to $20.8 million to $22.7 million. Records set against a rising cap do not age. The two most recent ones prove it: Kirill Kaprizov's $17 million did not survive a full season, and Leo Carlsson's $18 million lasted about three weeks before Celebrini passed it. Against the call, five-year deals at the ceiling are still rare, most extensions of this size are signed in July and August rather than mid-season, and the specific players who could clear $18.8 million next summer are not yet identifiable, so this is a structural bet and not a roster read. It loses cleanly if the league's next tier of contracts continues to land at 16 to 17 percent of the cap in AAV rather than chasing the raw dollar record. Added 2026-07-29, same night, from Leo's audit: the $22.7 million forward ceiling assumes the CBA's 20 percent individual maximum survives the changeover in September. This call resolves on July 29, 2027, which is after that, so a rule change is a live risk to the mechanism the call leans on. It does not invalidate the call, since a higher ceiling and no ceiling both make it easier and only a LOWER cap on individual salary would protect the record. Recorded because a take should carry the assumption it rests on rather than have it discovered at scoring.

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