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November 8, 2026
Post-game

San Jose outscored Dallas at five-on-five and lost all nine draws on the kill

Dallas won every faceoff it took with the man advantage. Two of its three power-play goals came within 25 seconds of one.

DC
Dom CahillNov 8, 20264 min read
Every call on this site goes on a public ledger and gets graded. The misses stay up.
Collin Graf in San Jose's white road sweater, knees bent and stick on the ice, tracking the play at Edmonton with a teammate behind him. The photograph is from an earlier game.

San Jose outscored Dallas 2-1 at five-on-five Saturday at American Airlines Center, on five-on-five expected goals of 2.02 to Dallas's 2.05, and lost 4-3. Dallas won all nine faceoffs it took on the power play and scored on 3 of its 5 power plays.

The nine draws#

The NHL play-by-play puts eight of those nine Dallas power-play faceoffs in San Jose's end. Collin Graf lost all five of his shorthanded draws Saturday to Roope Hintz, Barclay Goodrow lost all three to Wyatt Johnston, and Ty Dellandrea lost his shorthanded draw to Hintz.

Hintz's four-on-three goal came 25 seconds after Johnston beat Goodrow in San Jose's end. Jason Robertson's five-on-four goal came 19 seconds after Hintz beat Dellandrea there. Thomas Harley's five-on-four goal came 61 seconds after Johnston beat Goodrow at center ice.

Zack Ostapchuk played Friday at Minnesota and did not play Saturday; Filip Bystedt played 4:43. The NHL skater statistics give the four men's season records on shorthanded faceoffs:

  1. Ostapchuk, 61.5 percent, 16 of 26 shorthanded draws.
  2. Dellandrea, 36.4 percent, 8 of 22 shorthanded draws.
  3. Graf, 27.0 percent, 10 of 37 shorthanded draws.
  4. Goodrow, 18.2 percent, 2 of 11 shorthanded draws.

The chances#

San Jose trailed for the final 44:43. MoneyPuck's per-event file has San Jose behind 2.02 to 2.05 in five-on-five expected goals, and ahead 2.07 to 2.00 after score-and-venue adjustment. Saturday's 49.6 percent five-on-five share sits above the 43.2 percent in MoneyPuck's season summary across 19 games.

Dallas generated 2.30 expected goals in 7:29 on the power play. Its 18 unblocked power-play attempts split into 8 on goal carrying 1.15 expected goals and 10 misses carrying another 1.15.

San Jose goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic made 26 saves on 30 shots, including 5 saves on 8 Dallas power-play shots. His 30 shots against carried 2.62 expected goals. That on-goal figure is not a goals-saved measure, because MoneyPuck prices an attempt before it is saved or missed.

San Jose generated 0.97 expected goals in 7:45 on its power play. Macklin Celebrini won the five-on-three draw in Dallas's end, and Will Smith scored 51 seconds later. San Jose finished with 4 wins in 11 power-play faceoffs.

The kill#

The NHL penalty-kill table has San Jose at 81.0 percent through 17 games, 79.4 through 18 and 76.5 through 19, with 52 kills on 68 times shorthanded. Across two games, Friday at Minnesota and Saturday at Dallas, San Jose allowed 5 power-play goals on 10 times shorthanded.

Against me#

The arguments against this, and the first one is real.

  1. A faceoff buys a few seconds of possession; it does not score a goal. Harley's five-on-four goal followed a center-ice draw by 61 seconds, and Dallas produced 2.30 power-play expected goals in 7:29. San Jose supplied five power plays, including a too-many-men bench minor and Jacob Trouba's interference during four-on-four that created the four-on-three.
  2. Dallas's success on power-play draws extends beyond San Jose. The NHL team statistics have Dallas at 45 of 69, 65.2 percent across 17 games; Hintz won 6 of 6 power-play draws Saturday.
  3. Ostapchuk's shorthanded rate can move a long way on so few draws. His season advantage rests on 16 wins in 26 shorthanded faceoffs.

Three stars#

  1. Macklin Celebrini (SJS). An assist on all three San Jose goals, six shots on goal, 28:05, and the five-on-three faceoff win 51 seconds before Smith scored.
  2. Roope Hintz (DAL). A four-on-three goal, the assist on Benn's five-on-five goal, and six power-play faceoffs won without a loss, one of them 19 seconds before Robertson scored.
  3. Wyatt Johnston (DAL). Two power-play assists, 1.32 individual expected goals (the most of any skater in the game), and three power-play faceoffs won, one 25 seconds before Hintz scored.

The NHL's order was Harley, Celebrini, Hintz. Harley misses this list because all three points came on the power play, while his five-on-five on-ice expected goals were 0.35 for and 0.83 against in 13:36.

Sources: NHL game data, box score and play-by-play for game 2026020272; NHL team and skater statistics; MoneyPuck game, player and team data.

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