Player deep dive

Misa is shooting again, and the gap between him and his team has grown

Misa took 13 five-on-five shot attempts in 55.8 minutes in games 6 to 10. San Jose's five-on-five chance share over those games was 39.3 percent with him and 57.7 without.

DC
Dom CahillOct 21, 20265 min read
Every call on this site goes on a public ledger and gets graded. The misses stay up.
Michael Misa on the ice in San Jose's black alternate sweater with the wave crest, teal and white sleeve striping, holding his stick across his body and looking toward the right of the frame, with an out-of-focus crowd behind him.

Michael Misa's own-zone starts and his shooting went back to last season's levels, and the number that excused his chance share went the other way. In games 6 to 10, his five-on-five shot attempts rose to 13 in 55.8 minutes, from four in 61.2 minutes in games 1 to 5; San Jose's five-on-five chance share without him rose from 35.2 to 57.7 percent across the same two windows.

This season is ten games, split between the five covered Oct. 11 and the five since; last season was 45. The matching window, also used for maximums, is his first ten games of 2025-26: seven in October and November 2025, three in January 2026. Chances mean MoneyPuck expected goals; Misa's ten-game five-on-five sample totals 117.0 minutes.

The starts#

His defensive-zone share of five-on-five faceoff starts went from two of 31 (6.5 percent) in games 1 to 5, over 61.2 minutes, to eight of 30 (26.7 percent) in games 6 to 10, over 55.8. These count faceoff starts only; he also had 85 on-the-fly starts through ten games.

The ten-game total is ten of 61 (16.4 percent) in 117.0 five-on-five minutes, against 12 of 47 (25.5 percent) in his first ten games last season, over 97.0 minutes. The recent share nearly matches 60 of 223 (26.9 percent) across 45 games and 514.7 five-on-five minutes.

The shots#

His five-on-five attempt rate rose from 3.9 per 60 in games 1 to 5 (61.2 minutes) to 14.0 in games 6 to 10 (55.8 minutes); his expected goals rose from 0.22 to 1.18. His ten-game, 117.0-minute rate of 8.7 attempts per 60 trails 12.4 through his first ten last season (97.0 minutes) and 10.1 over 45 games (514.7 minutes).

His all-situations shots on goal in games 6 to 10 were 1, 1, 0, 1, 3. At Montreal on Oct. 20 he scored his first goal of the season, at five-on-five, and had 0.66 expected goals in 13.5 five-on-five minutes, his most at five-on-five in any game this season. His all-situations average shot speed is 52.16 mph through ten games, the 35th percentile, against 46.35 mph and the 15th percentile over last season's 45 games.

The passing#

The passing finding held: three assists, all primary, came at five-on-five in games 1 to 5; games 6 to 10 added none. In all situations, three primary assists equal his 45-game rookie total. He has four points through ten games, against three through his first ten last season; he has no power-play points in 14:02 of power-play time.

The chances#

The Oct. 11 look's team-wide explanation broke. At five-on-five in games 1 to 5, over Misa's 61.2 minutes, San Jose had 31.6 percent of the chances with him and 35.2 without, a 3.6-point gap. In games 6 to 10, over his 55.8 minutes, those shares became 39.3 and 57.7, an 18.4-point gap.

That split can move on a few shifts. Across ten games and 117.0 five-on-five minutes, the shares are 35.7 with him and 47.7 without, a 12.0-point deficit. Five-on-five chances against per 60 with him on the ice rose from 3.45 over the opening 61.2 minutes to 3.82 over the next 55.8, making 3.63 across all 117.0; last season's 45-game, 514.7-minute rate was 2.75.

Actual five-on-five goals went from five for, four against in games 1 to 5 to two for, four against in games 6 to 10. Through his first ten games last season, over 97.0 five-on-five minutes, his shares were 42.6 on and 49.3 off, 6.7 points below; over 45 games and 514.7 minutes they finished at 49.7 and 49.4. His most-used line, with Ivar Stenberg and Kiefer Sherwood, has 34.0 percent of five-on-five chances and goals of zero for, three against over 30.5 minutes in five games.

The legs#

The skating workload is unchanged. All-situations distance per 60 is 10.36 miles through ten games, the 95th percentile, against 10.17 and the 93rd over 45 last season; even-strength distance is 10.45 against 10.34. All-situations bursts over 20 mph per 60 are 10.7 against 10.6 across those seasons, after rising from 7.8 in games 1 to 5 to 13.7 in games 6 to 10.

Through ten games of each season his top speed is 22.55 mph this season and 21.90 last season, both set in his first game. Even-strength offensive/defensive zone time is 38.7/42.9 percent through ten games, against 38.5/43.9 over last season's 45 games.

The table sets the two five-game windows beside last season. Five-on-five minutes by column are 61.2, 55.8, 97.0 and 514.7.

MeasureGames 1-5Games 6-102025-26, first 102025-26, 45 games
Five-on-five D-zone faceoff starts6.5% (2/31)26.7% (8/30)25.5% (12/47)26.9% (60/223)
Five-on-five own attempts/603.914.012.410.1
Five-on-five on-ice chance share31.6%39.3%42.6%49.7%
Five-on-five share without him35.2%57.7%49.3%49.4%
Five-on-five on minus off, points-3.6-18.4-6.7+0.3
Five-on-five chances against/603.453.823.392.75
Five-on-five goals for/against5/42/46/525/26
All-situations bursts over 20 mph/607.813.7not built10.6

The card#

His 45-game rookie Pine Net Rating was +1.8 per 82 games, the 45th percentile of 469 forwards, a third-line tier. Defense was minus 7.8 per 82, the 12th percentile; five-on-five chances against per 60 were 2.75 over 514.7 minutes, the 16th percentile. This season's minus 3.85 is a total, in different units from the per-82 card. Through ten games, he is 20th of 20 rated Sharks skaters.

The arguments against me#

  1. The real one is five games. That 18.4-point five-on-five deficit covers 55.8 minutes; last season he was 6.7 below through ten games and 97.0 minutes, then finished +0.3 over 45 games and 514.7 minutes.
  2. The comparison includes Macklin Celebrini's return. He missed Oct. 5 and Oct. 8, two of the opening five games, and played all of games 6 to 10, so San Jose's five-on-five share without Misa rose over five games that all had Celebrini in the lineup.
  3. Misa is 19, and his most-used line includes another 19-year-old, Stenberg. Results belong to linemates too; with Sherwood, their five-on-five chance share is 34.0 percent across five games and 30.5 minutes.

Sources: NHL Edge (2025-26 and 2026-27); the NHL's player pages, game logs and stats feed; MoneyPuck's season, line-combination, game-by-game and single-game player files (2025-26 and 2026-27); the site's 2025-26 hockey card and this season's Pine Net Rating.

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OpenAug 14, 2026

Michael Misa finishes the 2026-27 regular season with fewer than 60 points. Scored off his official NHL regular-season point total for the season, from any single source that carries it: 59 or fewer is a hit, 60 or more is a miss. Points for any club count, not only San Jose, so a trade does not make the row unresolvable. Misa is the single largest rate increase asked of any returning player on the board this piece examines, from 0.47 points per game as a rookie to 0.71.

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