The Kings missed the net with their best chances. San Jose is 2-0.

Four of the Kings' five most dangerous five-on-five attempts on Saturday missed the net. By MoneyPuck's goal probability, those four carried 1.01 expected goals between them. San Jose won 5-4 in overtime to reach 2-0 while Los Angeles led five-on-five expected goals 2.90 to 1.18 and attempts 55-38.

San Jose led 3-1 in the second period and 4-2 in the third. Artemi Panarin tied it 4-4 with five minutes left in regulation, and Igor Chernyshov won it 3:18 into overtime.

Two counts cover the distance between those numbers and the score. San Jose scored three five-on-five goals on attempts worth 0.12 combined; Los Angeles put 1.87 of its 2.90 five-on-five expected goals into 18 misses.

Eighteen misses#

MoneyPuck prices an attempt before it is known whether it hits the net. The Kings' five most dangerous at five-on-five, in descending goal probability:

1. Panarin, second period, 18:04: a rebound wrist shot from 17.3 feet, 0.41, missed wide with San Jose ahead 3-1.
2. Scott Laughton, third period, 19:51: a wrist shot from 5.0 feet, 0.24, missed wide at 4-4, nine seconds before regulation ended.
3. Adrian Kempe, third period, 3:55: a backhand from 7.0 feet, 0.22, missed wide with San Jose ahead 3-2. Chernyshov made it 4-2 thirteen seconds later.
4. Kempe, second period, 6:01: a wrist shot from 10.3 feet, 0.19, saved by San Jose's Yaroslav Askarov at 1-1.
5. Alex Turcotte, third period, 9:48: a tip from 5.0 feet, 0.14, missed wide with San Jose ahead 4-2.

The four misses required no save, however much danger the model assigned them. Los Angeles's five-on-five attempts that reached the net carried 1.03 expected goals across 27 shots on goal.

Three goals for 0.12#

Los Angeles's Anton Forsberg allowed five-on-five goals to Kiefer Sherwood, Nolan Allan and Chernyshov on attempts priced at 0.01, 0.05 and 0.06 respectively. None was taken from inside 18 feet. San Jose's other two goals were Tyler Toffoli's power-play tip, priced at 0.26, and Chernyshov's three-on-three winner in overtime, a slap shot from 32.8 feet priced at 0.18. Across all situations, San Jose scored 5 goals on 1.85 expected goals from 35 unblocked attempts.

In his Oct. 3 game review, Professor Hockey said the Sharks were "outplayed pretty much across the board" and made Forsberg's goaltending the difference. His review does not take up the Kings' missed chances. Forsberg's all-situations save percentage Saturday was .800 on 25 shots, against .910 on 952 shots last season. Askarov stopped 31 of 35.

One line#

Kempe, Panarin and Quinton Byfield held a 20-4 attempt advantage in 13:02 together at five-on-five. Without the trio together, Los Angeles led five-on-five attempts 35-34 over the other 39:13.

San Jose had the last change at home. Alexander Wennberg faced the trio for 6:03 at five-on-five, Macklin Celebrini for 3:52; in Wennberg's matchup, the Sharks produced no five-on-five attempts against Los Angeles's 9 in 6:03.

The lead#

San Jose spent 22:08 leading at five-on-five, with Los Angeles ahead 32-12 in attempts during that time. While tied, five-on-five attempts were 20-20 over 25:57, though Los Angeles led five-on-five expected goals 1.24 to 0.46. San Jose led for the first 15:00 of the third period, and five-on-five attempts in that period were 25-12 for Los Angeles.

Two for three#

Los Angeles went 2 for 3 on the power play, scoring through Kempe after 57 seconds and Byfield after 34. Byfield's goal came two seconds before the second intermission, following 0:26 of six-on-five during the delayed call before that power play. Toffoli's power-play goal brought Ivar Stenberg his first NHL point; San Jose's penalty kill through two games stands at 66.7 percent, 6 kills in 9 shorthanded situations.

The case against#

1. Score effects matter. San Jose led for 22:08 at five-on-five, and five-on-five attempts while tied were 20-20.
2. A missed five-on-five attempt from 5.0 feet may be harder than the model can see. The Kings' 1.87 five-on-five expected goals on misses measures modeled value, not open nets.
3. The damage was concentrated. Outside the Kings' top trio, San Jose's five-on-five attempts were 34-35 over 39:13.
4. This is a single game, and four five-on-five misses carry 1.01 of Los Angeles's 2.90 five-on-five expected goals from 45 unblocked attempts.

Two games#

Two games is two games. San Jose lost the opener's five-on-five expected-goal comparison 1.08 to Florida's 1.71, then Saturday's 1.18 to Los Angeles's 2.90. Combined, San Jose has 32.9 percent of five-on-five expected goals, 2.26 against opponents' 4.61, with five-on-five goals level at 4-4 and overtime wins delivering 4 of 4 available points.

Three stars#

The NHL's three stars, in order:

1. Igor Chernyshov, San Jose.
2. Quinton Byfield, Los Angeles.
3. Tyler Toffoli, San Jose.

My three stars, in order:

1. Byfield, Los Angeles: a power-play goal, the only assist on the tying goal, and a 30-7 on-ice attempt advantage in 17:06 at five-on-five.
2. Chernyshov, San Jose: two goals, including the overtime winner, and an assist, his first three-point game in 30 NHL games.
3. Toffoli, San Jose: the power-play tip from 4.2 feet, San Jose's highest-probability attempt across all situations at 0.26, and the primary assist on Chernyshov's 4-2 goal.

The same three names, with the first two swapped and a Kings player first in a game the Kings lost. With Byfield off the ice, San Jose led five-on-five attempts 31-25 across 35:09.

Sources: NHL gamecenter landing, boxscore, play-by-play and shift charts; NHL player records and standings; MoneyPuck game data and team season file; Professor Hockey's game review (YouTube, Oct. 3).