The five-on-five chances were even. Minnesota scored from 43 and 42 feet.

San Jose matched Minnesota's five-on-five chances and lost 4-1 on Friday at Grand Casino Arena. MoneyPuck's game data gave the Sharks 1.53 expected goals to Minnesota's 1.47 at five-on-five, on 44 attempts each. Minnesota scored on two power plays, including a five-on-three, and on five-on-five shots from 43 and 42 feet.

Five-on-five#

The NHL boxscore had San Jose ahead 20-15 in even-strength shots on goal. Friday's 51.0 percent five-on-five expected-goals share compares with 42.9 percent across 18 games in MoneyPuck's season summary. Trailing can flatter a team's share, and San Jose trailed for 50:01; the score-and-venue adjustment barely changed the five-on-five expected goals, to 1.54 against 1.48. Minnesota generated 1.47 five-on-five expected goals Friday against San Jose's season allowance of 2.35 per game across 18 games.

The two long ones#

Quinn Hughes scored at 6:54 of the third from 43 feet, a five-on-five wrist shot carrying 0.034 expected goals. Zach Bogosian scored at 13:58 from 42 feet, a five-on-five slap shot carrying 0.022. Both goalies were in net for each, and the two shots together carried 0.056.

San Jose's Yaroslav Askarov faced 29 shots on goal carrying 2.23 expected goals and allowed four. Minnesota's Jesper Wallstedt faced 24 carrying 1.16 and allowed one. MoneyPuck prices attempts before they are saved or missed, so these on-goal totals are not goals-saved measures. The NHL goalie summary puts Askarov's season save percentage at .885, with 308 saves on 348 shots across 12 games.

The box#

San Jose took five minors to Minnesota's three; Minnesota went 2 for 5 on power plays, San Jose 0 for 3. Ty Dellandrea's holding minor at 7:00 and Collin Graf's tripping minor at 7:28 of the first overlapped. Kirill Kaprizov scored on the five-on-three at 7:55. Macklin Celebrini tied it at 12:11 of the second; Jacob Trouba took an interference minor 48 seconds later, and Maxim Shabanov tipped in the ensuing power-play goal at 14:15.

Penalty frequency gives San Jose something direct to reduce. Minnesota's power play produced 2.05 expected goals and 12 shots on goal; San Jose's produced 0.51 and three. The Sharks went shorthanded five times against their season rate of 3.5 per game, 63 times across 18 games. Their kill fell from 81.0 percent, 47 of 58 through 17 games, to 79.4 percent, 50 of 63 through 18. Minnesota's power play is converting at 26.6 percent through 18 games.

The units#

MoneyPuck's unit rows spread the five-on-five results unevenly within this game. Darnell Nurse and Michael Kesselring went 1.00 to 0.54 in expected goals over 14.3 minutes; Celebrini, Michael Misa and Will Smith went 0.70 to 0.35 over 14.0; Ivar Stenberg, Dellandrea and Tyler Toffoli went 0.22 to 0.01 over 6.3. At the other end, Barclay Goodrow, Adam Gaudette and Zack Ostapchuk went 0.04 to 0.49 over 6.1 five-on-five minutes, and Sam Dickinson and Trouba went 0.13 to 0.43 over 14.5.

Against me#

The arguments against this, and the first one is real.

1. Penalties belong to the same team. Trouba's minor 48 seconds after the tying goal and Celebrini's third-period holding minor count alongside the chances. Five turns shorthanded can suggest chasing play; Friday's five-on-five count offers little evidence of that within this game.
2. Expected goals cannot describe the view from the crease. A 43-foot wrist shot through a screen and one with a clear view carry the same location; the model records neither the screen nor the preceding pass.
3. Friday's 51.0 percent five-on-five expected-goals share sits against 42.9 percent across 18 games. San Jose's five-on-five goals across those 18 games stand at 21 for and 40 against.

Three stars#

1. Kirill Kaprizov (MIN). A point on all four Minnesota goals, including the five-on-three goal, and 0.79 individual expected goals, the most of any skater in the game.
2. Macklin Celebrini (SJS). San Jose's goal, six shots on goal, and a line with Misa and Smith that went 0.70 to 0.35 in expected goals over 14.0 five-on-five minutes.
3. Darnell Nurse (SJS). Five blocked shots, and a pair with Kesselring that went 1.00 to 0.54 in expected goals over 14.3 five-on-five minutes.

The NHL's order was Hughes, Kaprizov, Wallstedt. Hughes's assists both came on power plays; his five-on-five expected goals were 0.68 to 0.85 in 24.1 minutes, and his five-on-five goal carried 0.034. Wallstedt faced 24 shots on goal carrying 1.16 expected goals.

Sources: NHL game data and box score; NHL team and goalie statistics; MoneyPuck game, player and team data.