The Sharks won their opener on special teams and three-on-three

Florida won the five-on-five portion of Thursday's opener, and San Jose won enough of everything else to leave with a 4-3 overtime win. Florida led 2-1 in five-on-five goals, 1.71 to 1.08 in MoneyPuck's expected goals and 44-38 in attempts. Mason Marchment supplied San Jose's five-on-five goal; Will Smith scored shorthanded and on the power play, and Luca Cagnoni finished at three-on-three. Everywhere else, San Jose outscored Florida 3-1.

The tied third#

Split the five-on-five expected goals by score, Florida's highest first, with San Jose's alongside:

1. Tied 3-3: Florida 0.94, San Jose 0.24, in 14:24 of five-on-five.
2. Tied 0-0: Florida 0.40, San Jose 0.48, in 12:20 of five-on-five.
3. San Jose leading: Florida 0.37, San Jose 0.36, in 17:44 of five-on-five.

The usual suspect, a team sitting on a lead, fits the numbers worst. San Jose was almost level in expected goals while ahead, then gave up the larger chances after Luostarinen and Matthew Tkachuk scored 17 seconds apart to erase the lead. The 3-3 stretch accounts for a 0.70 expected-goal deficit at five-on-five, larger than the whole game's 0.63 deficit at that manpower.

At 16:30 of the third, Yaroslav Askarov saved Sam Bennett's wrist shot from 4.5 feet, the game's most dangerous five-on-five attempt by MoneyPuck's goal probability. San Jose still had 3:30 of regulation to get through.

Ten minutes short#

Florida had six power plays, all before the third period, and San Jose spent 10:27 shorthanded. Florida generated 2.24 expected goals on its power play, scored once and put nine shots on goal, eight saved by Askarov. Smith scored shorthanded inside that same 10:27, with Celebrini assisting, to make it 2-0.

In his Oct. 1 game review, Professor Hockey credited Askarov's saves for much of the penalty kill's success and singled out discipline as his criticism. He excused Sherwood's high stick and Cagnoni's interference, but said of Nurse's cross-checks and Marchment's slash, "These are things that simply cannot happen." One goal on six power plays flatters the kill. Florida took 23 attempts with the extra man, 20 of them in the second period.

The extra man#

Cagnoni ran the first power-play unit and played all of the overtime four-on-three. He received 5:19 of San Jose's 5:48 on the power play, with Orlov getting 0:29. San Jose generated 1.60 expected goals from 11 unblocked power-play attempts, including Smith's goal, and the advantage that Niko Mikkola's roughing penalty at 19:42 of the third carried into overtime supplied 0.45 from four unblocked attempts at four-on-three.

Cagnoni's winner came at three-on-three, 92 seconds after that penalty expired. It was his first NHL goal, in his 10th regular-season game. San Jose took all six of the shots on goal in overtime.

The debut#

Ivar Stenberg made his NHL regular-season debut the day after turning 19, playing 13:35 without a point. His five-on-five shifts contained 10 San Jose attempts and 14 Florida attempts, giving the Sharks 10 of the 24 attempts with him on the ice.

The star ballots#

The NHL's three stars, all from San Jose, in order:

1. Will Smith.
2. Luca Cagnoni.
3. Macklin Celebrini.

My three stars, in order:

1. Macklin Celebrini. Three assists, covering every San Jose goal outside five-on-five, a game-high seven shots on goal and 14-9 on-ice five-on-five attempts while the team went 38-44.
2. Yaroslav Askarov. Eight saves on nine Florida power-play shots over 10:27 shorthanded, plus the save on Bennett from 4.5 feet at 3-3 with 3:30 left, the game's most dangerous five-on-five shot by MoneyPuck's goal probability.
3. Will Smith. A shorthanded goal, a power-play goal and the primary assist on Cagnoni's winner.

Askarov comes in, Cagnoni comes out, and Celebrini moves from third to first. Cagnoni's overtime goal and power-play work earned the league's second star; his five-on-five minutes keep him off my ballot. His on-ice attempt count was 10-17, a 37.0 percent San Jose share of 27 five-on-five attempts, placing him last among the Sharks' six defensemen.

Three objections#

1. One game is one game. Expected goals describe the chances in this game, not a team trait, and a single attempt moves the split: Bennett's saved shot alone was 0.33 of Florida's 0.94 at 3-3.
2. Florida's lineup limits what this says about the opponent San Jose beat. Gustav Forsling did not play, and Aleksander Barkov did not return after a shift that ended at 8:07 of the second period. He played 9:15 across 11 shifts.
3. The attempt counts give San Jose a stronger argument than the chance values do. Its 46.3 percent share of 82 five-on-five attempts was closer to even than the expected-goal totals, and removing blocks left the teams level at 28 unblocked attempts apiece across 44:28 of five-on-five.

Sources: NHL gamecenter landing, boxscore, play-by-play and shift charts; NHL player records; MoneyPuck game data; Professor Hockey's game review (YouTube, Oct. 1).