San Jose edged Boston on five-on-five chances and still lost 6-3
San Jose led Boston 2.24 to 2.21 in five-on-five expected goals, its first game of six ahead on that count. Boston scored five five-on-five goals on 21 shots.
San Jose finally led in five-on-five expected goals, 2.24 to 2.21 by MoneyPuck's model, and lost the five-on-five scoring 1 to 5. It was San Jose's highest five-on-five expected-goals total in six games and its first lead on that count. The final was Boston 6, San Jose 3 in regulation, the sixth goal into an empty net.
The finishing and goaltending gap swallowed the improvement. Boston's 21 five-on-five shots on goal carried 1.58 expected goals and produced five goals; San Jose's 31 carried 1.64 and produced one.
The first five#
San Jose's five-on-five expected goals ran 1.03 to Dallas's 3.66 and 2.19 to St. Louis's 2.98. Its 3-3-0 record contains three overtime wins and no regulation win. Macklin Celebrini said after the game, per Sheng Peng of San Jose Hockey Now: "We probably lost a game we should have won, but earlier this season we probably won a game that we should have lost." MoneyPuck's season files put San Jose's five-on-five share at 37.3 percent over six games, against 47.6 percent across 82 games last season.
Five on twenty-one#
San Jose's Yaroslav Askarov made 16 saves on 21 five-on-five shots; Boston's Jeremy Swayman made 30 on 31. Boston's five five-on-five goals carried 0.62 expected goals combined. The goal probabilities included Fraser Minten's 0.032 from 47 feet and Charlie McAvoy's 0.171 from 9 feet, both at five-on-five.
Professor Hockey said Askarov lost the duel with Swayman and identified Pavel Zacha's five-on-five goal with three seconds left in the second as the save San Jose needed. He would have started Alexander Nedeljkovic, questioning a workload that reached five Askarov starts in six games.
Both halves of Stenberg#
Ivar Stenberg, 19 and the second overall pick in 2026, scored his first NHL goal on the power play, from 3 feet with a goal probability of 0.422. He also assisted on Celebrini's power-play goal. At five-on-five, Stenberg was on the ice for four of Boston's five five-on-five goals, with expected goals of 0.32 for and 0.77 against in 11:11. His new line with Misa and Sherwood ran 0.12 to 0.57 in five-on-five expected goals over 8:19 together.
New lines#
Every forward line was new. Professor Hockey called Chernyshov-Celebrini-Smith the best by far and attributed its absence of an even-strength goal to overpassing. At five-on-five, that line led shots on goal 7 to 3, with expected goals of 0.35 to 0.36 over 11:30. Marchment-Wennberg-Toffoli led five-on-five expected goals 0.46 to 0.16 over 10:36 together.
Two for four#
San Jose's power play went 2 for 4, generating 0.76 expected goals in 5:12 at five-on-four. Smith and Celebrini played 3:49 each at five-on-four; Wennberg and Stenberg played 3:48 each. Celebrini drew two of Boston's four minors. On moving Orlov onto the top power-play unit over Cagnoni, Ryan Warsofsky said, per Peng: "Yeah, just settle it down a little bit." Boston's power play went 0 for 2 despite 1.11 expected goals on 10 attempts in 4:00 at five-on-four.
The blue line#
Orlov-Cagnoni allowed three Boston goals in 9:55 together at five-on-five, with expected goals of 0.55 to 0.69. Cagnoni said, per Peng: "I just gotta be better. I just gotta be harder." After Poitras's goal, Cagnoni's shift ended at 9:55 of the second; his next began at 1:50 of the third.
Nurse fought Zadorov at 6:40 of the third and took no further shift; Warsofsky gave no update, Peng reported, with Nashville on Thursday. Dickinson-Trouba led five-on-five expected goals 0.72 to 0.39 over 13:50 together. Dickinson led San Jose skaters in five-on-five ice time at 19:15.
Hundredths#
Four arguments against reading this as progress, and the second one is real.
- San Jose's five-on-five expected-goals lead, 2.24 to 2.21, is a margin of hundredths.
- San Jose trailed for 40:57; MoneyPuck's score-and-venue-adjusted even-strength expected goals favor Boston 2.40 to 2.06.
- Including power plays and the empty net, Boston led all-situations expected goals 3.78 to 3.15.
- This is one game against five earlier deficits; San Jose's five-on-five expected-goals share remains 37.3 percent over six games.
The selections#
Dom Cahill's stars
- Jeremy Swayman, Boston: 30 saves on 31 five-on-five shots carrying 1.64 expected goals.
- Macklin Celebrini, San Jose: a power-play goal and assist, two minors drawn, and a 7-to-3 five-on-five shot advantage in 11:30 with his line.
- Alexander Wennberg, San Jose: his line's 0.46-to-0.16 five-on-five expected-goals advantage over 10:36, plus top-unit duty for both power-play goals.
The NHL's stars
- Fraser Minten, Boston: two five-on-five goals.
- Macklin Celebrini, San Jose: a power-play goal and assist.
- Charlie McAvoy, Boston: one five-on-five goal.
Swayman and Wennberg appear only on my list; Minten and McAvoy only on the league's. One name of three is shared, Celebrini, second on both.
Sources: NHL gamecenter landing, boxscore, play-by-play, right rail and shift charts; NHL standings, schedule, player records and game logs; MoneyPuck game data and team season files; San Jose Hockey Now (Sheng Peng); Professor Hockey's game review (YouTube, Oct. 14).
