San Jose won five-on-five by its widest margin yet, and lost on the kill
San Jose's 3.10 to 1.88 in five-on-five expected goals meant a 62.3 percent share, its highest in nine games this season. Both Toronto goals against Askarov came on the power play.
San Jose's 3.10 to 1.88 advantage in five-on-five expected goals at Toronto on Monday was its widest margin in nine games, a 62.3 percent share that is also the season's highest, and it yielded one goal. Toronto beat San Jose's Yaroslav Askarov twice on the power play and won 3-1 in regulation.
Mason Marchment scored five-on-five at 13:54 of the first; Auston Matthews tied it five-on-four at 19:48 of the second; Gavin McKenna made it 2-1 five-on-four at 4:56 of the third. Nick Paul scored into San Jose's empty net at 19:20 of the third, with San Jose's sixth skater on. Toronto's Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 30 of 31 overall in 60:00; Askarov stopped 29 of 31 overall in 58:59.
Alexander Wennberg's last shift ended at 16:04 of the third, per the NHL's shift chart, and he did not return. Sheng Peng of San Jose Hockey Now reported an upper-body injury and that Wennberg is in question for Tuesday's game at Montreal.
The kill#
San Jose took six penalties: tripping by Jacob Trouba, Dmitry Orlov and Will Smith, a bench minor for too many men, Luca Cagnoni's cross-check and Kiefer Sherwood's slash. Sherwood's was coincidental with Paul's roughing, so it produced four-on-four rather than a sixth Toronto power play.
Matthews scored seven seconds into the bench minor, on a shot MoneyPuck priced at 0.134. McKenna scored 1:19 into Cagnoni's penalty, at 0.151. Both goals came against the same four killers, Barclay Goodrow, Collin Graf, Darnell Nurse and Trouba, and from the same Toronto five: Matthews, William Nylander, McKenna, Kirill Marchenko and Darren Raddysh. The one kill that held was the hardest, a 1:02 three-on-five on which Toronto produced 0.55 xG and Askarov made two saves. Across 6:24 shorthanded, Toronto had 11 unblocked attempts, 1.30 xG, five shots on goal and two goals.
The NHL's team tables put San Jose's kill at 77.4 percent on 31 times shorthanded through nine games, 20th of 32 teams, after 76.4 percent over 82 games last season, 26th of 32. This season's 3.44 times shorthanded per game ranks 14th most among 32 teams; MoneyPuck's season summary puts four-on-five xG allowed at 10.19 per 60 minutes, 31st of 32.
Nine games#
Monday's five-on-five share was 62.3 percent in MoneyPuck's game file and 65.1 percent after its score-and-venue adjustment. The nine games, five-on-five, San Jose first:
| Date | Opponent | xG for | xG against | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 1 | Florida | 1.08 | 1.71 | 38.7% |
| Oct. 3 | Los Angeles | 1.18 | 2.90 | 28.9% |
| Oct. 5 | at Dallas | 1.03 | 3.25 | 24.0% |
| Oct. 8 | at St. Louis | 2.19 | 2.98 | 42.3% |
| Oct. 10 | Edmonton | 0.92 | 1.44 | 39.0% |
| Oct. 13 | Boston | 2.24 | 2.21 | 50.4% |
| Oct. 15 | at Nashville | 1.78 | 1.79 | 49.8% |
| Oct. 17 | at Detroit | 1.97 | 1.70 | 53.7% |
| Oct. 19 | at Toronto | 3.10 | 1.88 | 62.3% |
Sam Dickinson was on the ice for 1.61 to 0.73 in five-on-five xG over 15:42, the highest on-ice xG for of the 36 skaters in the game, and his pair with Trouba ran 1.27 to 0.46 in 13:12. The Chernyshov-Celebrini-Smith line ran 1.43 to 0.41 in 11:48. Toronto, with last change, had Matthews on against Celebrini for 9:58 of Matthews' 13:31 at five-on-five, and Matthews' shifts came out 0.59 to 1.04. The team share has gone from 34.2 percent over the first five games to 54.5 over the last four.
Two goalies#
Bobrovsky's 27 five-on-five shots carried 3.10 xG; one went in. Askarov's 22 carried 1.88; none went in. Toronto's five power-play shots carried 1.30 xG and produced two goals against Askarov.
Zero for four#
San Jose went 0 for 4, producing seven unblocked attempts, 0.55 xG and three shots in 8:00 at five-on-four; Celebrini's chance from five feet, at 0.155, was the largest. Toronto's season kill has stopped 31 of 32 power plays through ten games, first among 32 teams.
The draft picks#
Toronto's McKenna and San Jose's Ivar Stenberg, the first and second picks in 2026, met in the NHL for the first time. In Curtis Pashelka's Oct. 18 report for The Mercury News, Stenberg said before the game, "They wanted another guy, and I accept that. But I'm super happy I'm with the Sharks." McKenna scored the power-play goal that put Toronto ahead. Stenberg had one shot on goal in 14:27, 4:46 of it on the power play, and his five-on-five shifts ran 0.35 to 0.57 in xG over 8:30.
The arguments against me#
- The real one is the opponent. Toronto's five-on-five share is 43.6 percent through ten games, 29th of 32 teams, after 45.6 over 82 games last season.
- Monday is one game; San Jose's five-on-five season share remains 43.8 percent through nine games against 47.6 over 82 last season.
- Finishing trails the chances: San Jose has 12 five-on-five goals for and 19 against through nine games; Monday yielded one for and none against from 3.10 xG.
Stars, two ways#
Dom Cahill's stars
- Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR): one goal from 3.10 xG on 27 five-on-five shots; 27 of 28 at even strength, 30 of 31 overall.
- Sam Dickinson (SJS): 1.61 to 0.73 five-on-five xG in 15:42, attempts 23-14; highest on-ice xG for among 36 skaters, no point.
- Mason Marchment (SJS): San Jose's lone goal, five-on-five, a nine-foot backhand at 0.168; four shots on eight attempts, 0.62 individual xG overall; 0.93 to 0.34 five-on-five xG in 11:48.
The NHL's stars
- Sergei Bobrovsky (TOR)
- Auston Matthews (TOR)
- Yaroslav Askarov (SJS)
Bobrovsky is the one shared name, first on both lists. Matthews' three points came on the power play and the empty net, and his five-on-five shifts ran 0.59 to 1.04 in xG. Askarov's 22 of 22 at even strength sits beside three saves on five power-play shots that carried 1.30 xG.
Sources: NHL gamecenter landing, boxscore, play-by-play and right rail for game 2026020139; NHL shift charts; NHL schedule; NHL stats API team tables; MoneyPuck game data, player-game file, team game files and the 2025-26 and 2026-27 team season summaries; The Mercury News (Pashelka, Oct. 18); San Jose Hockey Now (Peng, Oct. 19).
