San Jose made its usual chances without Celebrini. Dallas made far more
San Jose's five-on-five chance creation without Celebrini held at 1.25 expected goals per 60 across 66:24 in its opening games and 49:30 at Dallas. Chances against rose from 3.05 to 4.44 in Monday's 5-0 loss.
In Monday's 5-0 loss at Dallas, San Jose created the same 1.25 five-on-five expected goals per 60 minutes without Macklin Celebrini that it had created without him on the ice in its opening games, by MoneyPuck's model. The samples were 49:30 on Monday and 66:24 against Florida and Los Angeles. Five-on-five expected goals allowed per 60 climbed from 3.05 to 4.44 across those same samples.
Celebrini was a late scratch with a lower-body injury, Robert Tiffin reported in NHL.com's Oct. 5 recap. Ryan Warsofsky said, "We'll evaluate tonight and tomorrow and see where he's at." Without its captain for the whole night, San Jose finished with 1.03 five-on-five expected goals to Dallas's 3.66 over 49:30.
Off and on#
Celebrini's 30:19 is a small sample, and his minutes come against opponents' top lines, so this split cannot measure him alone. Ordered by San Jose's five-on-five expected-goal share, even the top row trails.
| Group, by share | Five-on-five time | xG for / against | Per 60 | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celebrini on, opening two games | 30:19 | 0.88 / 1.23 | 1.74 / 2.43 | 41.7% |
| Celebrini off, opening two games | 66:24 | 1.38 / 3.38 | 1.25 / 3.05 | 29.0% |
| Dallas, Celebrini absent | 49:30 | 1.03 / 3.66 | 1.25 / 4.44 | 22.0% |
San Jose's five-on-five expected goals (xG), MoneyPuck game data. Opening games against Florida and Los Angeles, then Dallas. Rates are per 60 minutes of five-on-five.
The wins over Florida and Los Angeles both required overtime. Beneath those results, San Jose's five-on-five expected-goal share without Celebrini was already 29.0 percent across 66:24.
The first twenty#
"I didn't mind our first ten minutes. I thought we did some good things, and then it went south from there," Warsofsky said in Tiffin's recap. Dallas led five-on-five attempts 17-6 and expected goals 0.99 to 0.22 in those first ten minutes.
Over the second half of the first period, San Jose had no unblocked attempt at any strength; Dallas had eight worth 0.75 expected goals. Dallas led five-on-five attempts 29-7 in the first period and 48-15 over the first two periods.
Five for 1.06#
Dallas's five goals, all at five-on-five, carried a combined goal probability of 1.06. Tiffin's recap has Miro Heiskanen's opener banking in off a San Jose defenseman and the pad of San Jose's Yaroslav Askarov. On Joel Kiviranta's goal, the first shot deflected off a San Jose defenseman before Kiviranta banked the puck in off Askarov's pad. Kiviranta's five-on-five rebound alone carried a goal probability of 0.63.
Askarov allowed five goals on 26 all-situations shots carrying 3.36 expected goals. Dallas's Jake Oettinger faced 13 all-situations shots worth 0.88 expected goals, five of those 13 from inside 20 feet.
Seven for 1.05#
Both power plays finished scoreless, San Jose on two opportunities and Dallas on three. Kiefer Sherwood hit the left post shorthanded in the second period. Dallas's seven power-play unblocked attempts carried 1.05 expected goals, exceeding San Jose's 1.03 from 14 five-on-five unblocked attempts across 49:30.
Sherwood's evening#
Professor Hockey named Sherwood San Jose's best player in his Oct. 5 YouTube review. Sherwood's on-ice five-on-five expected goals were 0.61 for, the highest such total of any San Jose skater, and 0.59 against over 12:15.
Three games#
Three games is three games, even with decimals attached. San Jose's five-on-five expected goals ran 1.08 to 1.71 against Florida, 1.18 to 2.90 against Los Angeles and 1.03 to 3.66 against Dallas. Combined, that is 3.29 for and 8.27 against, a 28.5 percent five-on-five share across three games, with five-on-five goals at 4-9. MoneyPuck's season files put last season's five-on-five expected-goal share at 47.6 percent across 82 games.
Objections, numbered#
- Celebrini's five-on-five rates cover just 30:19 across two games, a sample vulnerable to substantial movement.
- Celebrini faces opponents' top lines, making the on/off comparison sensitive to whom each group plays.
- Dallas led 4-0 after two periods; score effects shaped a third period San Jose won 12-9 in five-on-five attempts.
- Heiskanen's goal went in off a San Jose defenseman and Askarov, Kiviranta's followed a shot that deflected off another, and all five carried a combined goal probability of 1.06.
- The lineup changed in two places, not one: Ty Dellandrea and Sam Dickinson made their season debuts in place of Celebrini and Nolan Allan.
Stars, both sets#
My ballot, in order:
- Miro Heiskanen, Dallas. The opening goal, with Dallas ahead 21-7 in attempts and 2.24 to 0.24 in expected goals over his 13:36 at five-on-five.
- Jason Robertson, Dallas. A goal and, as Tiffin described, the between-the-legs pass on Benn's goal; Dallas led attempts 18-5 over his 13:02 at five-on-five.
- Zack Ostapchuk, San Jose. No goal against, a game-high four blocked shots, and a 0.34 to 0.21 expected-goal advantage over his 9:24 at five-on-five.
The NHL's ballot, in order:
- Jamie Benn, Dallas.
- Jake Oettinger, Dallas.
- Miro Heiskanen, Dallas.
Heiskanen appears on both ballots; Benn and Oettinger appear only on the league's. Oettinger's 13 all-situations shots faced carried 0.88 expected goals.
Sources: NHL gamecenter landing, boxscore, play-by-play and shift charts; MoneyPuck game data and team season files; NHL.com game recap (Robert Tiffin); Professor Hockey's game review (YouTube, Oct. 5).
