St. Louis outscored San Jose's power play and lost in overtime anyway

San Jose's power play went 0 for 4 and lost the scoring to St. Louis's penalty kill. Dillon Dube scored shorthanded, and MoneyPuck's model put the five-on-four expected goals at 0.56 for San Jose and 0.41 against across 7:53, a 57.5 percent share.

Darnell Nurse's overtime goal delivered a 3-2 win with Macklin Celebrini absent for a second straight game. The power-play comparison comes from MoneyPuck's 2025-26 season table: an 89.0 percent five-on-four share league-wide across 11,845 minutes, and San Jose's own 88.3 percent across 402 minutes.

Seven fifty-three#

San Jose's five-on-four advantage narrowed with each filter across 7:53: 11-5 in attempts, 7-5 unblocked, 5-4 in shots on goal. Its five-on-four rates were 4.24 expected goals for and 3.14 against per 60 minutes; last season's league rates were 7.37 for and 0.91 against per 60 across 11,845 five-on-four minutes.

Four of St. Louis's five shorthanded attempts came during the second period's two San Jose power plays. The fifth was Dube's third-period goal, a shot MoneyPuck priced at a 0.26 goal probability.

Five veterans#

Sheng Peng's Oct. 8 San Jose Hockey Now lineup reporting had Luca Cagnoni, Ivar Stenberg, Will Smith, Igor Chernyshov and Alexander Wennberg on the first-period first power-play unit. The power-play unit opening the third had Jacob Trouba, 32; Kiefer Sherwood, 31; Mason Marchment, 31; Tyler Toffoli, 34; and Wennberg, 32.

That veteran unit was on for Dube's goal. In his Oct. 8 review, Professor Hockey attributed the turnover to Toffoli's backhand pass to nobody, collected by Dube. The goal put St. Louis ahead 2-1 during San Jose's fourth power play of the game.

Two for twelve#

Four games is four games. San Jose's power play is 2 for 12 so far and has allowed one shorthanded goal. Thursday supplied 0.41 of the 0.51 expected goals San Jose has conceded while playing five-on-four this season, across 21:29.

Forty-eight fifty-nine#

At five-on-five, San Jose won the goals 2-1 while trailing 2.19 to 2.98 in expected goals over 48:59. Its five-on-five share was 42.3 percent over that span, beside the power play's 57.5 percent over 7:53 at five-on-four.

San Jose's five-on-five attempts went from 9-18 in the first to 17-17 in the second and 13-12 in the third. San Jose's 11-3 edge in third-period shots on goal was all situations, and St. Louis led from 1:39 to 6:05 of that period. San Jose's season five-on-five share is 33.5 percent over 200:21, against 47.6 percent across 82 games last season.

The first start#

San Jose's Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 24 of 26 shots, all situations, in his first appearance of the season. St. Louis generated 3.76 expected goals across 40 unblocked attempts, including those 26 shots on goal, in all situations; two went in. At five-on-five, Nedeljkovic allowed one goal from 31 unblocked attempts carrying 2.98 expected goals.

Overtime receipts#

Nurse scored at 1:03 of three-on-three overtime, assisted by Stenberg and Wennberg. San Jose has no regulation win, with all three victories decided in overtime across four games.

Reasons for restraint#

1. The five-on-four rates describe 7:53 in one game, a small denominator for judging a power play.
2. Dube's shorthanded goal came on one shot with a 0.26 goal probability, enough to decide the night's power-play scoring exchange.
3. San Jose's 2025-26 power play sustained an 88.3 percent expected-goals share across 402 five-on-four minutes.

The dissent#

Professor Hockey named Stenberg San Jose's best player in his Oct. 8 review and considered the choice clear. Stenberg appears on neither star list below. He supplied the primary assist on the winner and played 17:21, his most ice time in four NHL games; San Jose's five-on-five expected goals with him were 0.64 for and 0.82 against over 14:21.

Ballots#

Dom Cahill's three stars:

1. Alex Nedeljkovic, San Jose. In his season debut, one goal allowed from 31 five-on-five unblocked attempts worth 2.98 expected goals.
2. Tyler Toffoli, San Jose. A goal, an assist and 0.72 individual expected goals in all situations, second-most among the game's skaters.
3. Michael Misa, San Jose. San Jose won his 12:16 at five-on-five 0.96 to 0.50 in expected goals and 2-0 in goals.

The NHL's three stars:

1. Tyler Toffoli, San Jose.
2. Darnell Nurse, San Jose.
3. Mason McTavish, St. Louis.

Toffoli is on both lists; Nurse and McTavish only on the league's, Nedeljkovic and Misa only on mine. McTavish led the game's skaters in individual expected goals, with 1.16 in all situations across his 14:29.

Sources: NHL gamecenter landing, boxscore, play-by-play and team tables; MoneyPuck game data and team season files; San Jose Hockey Now (Sheng Peng); Professor Hockey's game review (YouTube, Oct. 8).