+10.5
Pine Net Rating v0.1: goals above replacement per 82 games (+8.7 over his 68). 76% among 469 forwards, 1st line.
2025-26 regular season with CBJ (previous club): 68 games, 1181 minutes.
2026-27: +5.8 (range -8.7 to +20.3). 2030-31: +0.8 (range -30.0 to +31.6).
Market value is what the league pays a forward at his rating percentile this season, from 386 contracts; in 2026-27 dollars against a $104M ceiling. Positive value is the share of 2,000 simulated futures over his 5 remaining years in which that value meets his cap hit.
The number on each bar is his percentile among league forwards with 200 or more minutes at 5-on-5 (special teams: 30 or more minutes on the unit); each block prints the size of that group. Higher is better on every bar; chances against are inverted so 90% always reads well.
Sources: NHL.com for the roster, bio and counting line; MoneyPuck for expected goals, on-ice chances, blocks and penalties; PuckPedia and CapWages for the contract. Updated 2026-09-13. The rating, the forecast and the value line are this site's own, from public data, with the method published.
Ty Dellandrea's time on ice per game for San Jose in 2026-27 finishes below 13:00, down from 14:11 in 46 games in 2025-26.
Kiefer Sherwood averages under 1:45 a night on the power play across San Jose's first 20 games of 2026-27.
Mason Marchment finishes the 2026-27 regular season with an even-strength offensive zone start share below 60 percent for San Jose.
Tyler Toffoli scores fewer than 15 even-strength goals for San Jose in the 2026-27 regular season.
Igor Chernyshov averages more than 2.00 shots on goal per game across San Jose's first 20 regular-season games of 2026-27.
San Jose's penalty kill finishes the 2026-27 regular season ranked higher among the 32 NHL clubs than San Jose's power play.
Ivar Stenberg appears in 11 or more of San Jose's first 13 regular-season games in 2026-27.
Mason Marchment scored 45 points in 68 games last season across Seattle and Columbus, and 32 of them came in 39 games after the trade. He also started 69.1 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone, a career high by nine points, and 74.7 percent of them in Columbus. Nobody on San Jose's 2025-26 advanced table, at any games played, reached 69 percent. The bet is that a 31-year-old winger keeps producing on shifts that will start further from the goal he is being paid to score on.

The good half of July 1, a genuine homecoming, and the one question that decides how good.
